In their last showdown, the Ole Miss Rebels edged out the Arkansas Razorbacks with a hard-fought 27-20 victory. But that only slightly narrowed Arkansas’ historical edge in the all-time series at 38-30-1. So, who holds the upper hand in 2024?
Our Ole Miss vs. Arkansas prediction breaks down this matchup, bringing you essential betting insights to help guide your picks.
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Ole Miss vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -4 - Spread
Ole Miss -7.5 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -285, Arkansas +230 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 2 - Location
Razorback Stadium | Fayetteville, Ark. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, 7 mph winds, showers - How To Watch
ESPN
After opening at Ole Miss -4 with a 56.5-point total, bettors have raised the spread a couple of points while playing down the total by a few.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Despite the lower total, the under could still be the play, especially when taking into account recent trends:
- The under hit in each of Ole Miss’ last seven games.
- The under hit in four of Arkansas’ previous five contests.
Yet, the Rebels have struggled to cover against Arkansas, doing so just once in the last 10 matchups between the two programs. The Razorbacks are also on a hot streak this season, going 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
The No. 19 Rebels need to go undefeated to have a shot at the expanded College Football Playoff. With the Georgia Bulldogs still on the schedule, it’s a tall order — but not an impossible one, according to the FPM.
- at Arkansas: 61.9%
- vs. Georgia: 33.6%
- at Florida: 71.6%
- vs. Mississippi State: 95.3%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
The Razorbacks are one win away from securing a bowl berth. The question is, when will that win come? With win probabilities under 50% against Ole Miss, Texas, and Missouri, they are likely banking on a near-guaranteed victory over Louisiana Tech to secure their ticket.
- vs. Ole Miss: 38.1%
- vs. Texas: 21.9%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 91.7%
- at Missouri: 41.1%
Prediction for Ole Miss vs. Arkansas
The Rebels aren’t untouchable, as their losses to Kentucky and LSU show. And in this rivalry, Arkansas has a knack for derailing Ole Miss’s SEC title hopes, doing just that in 2014 and 2015.
Since 2008, this matchup has been an even split at 8-8, with nine games decided by four points or fewer. Arkansas has also won both home games during the Lane Kiffin era, including the wild 2020 contest where Matt Corral threw six interceptions.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The teams enter this game on very different notes. Arkansas rolled over Mississippi State, scoring a season-high 58 points—their biggest tally since 2018, also against the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Ole Miss needed a second-half surge to shake off a struggling Oklahoma team, winning 26-14.
Momentum might lean toward the Razorbacks, but football comes down to matchups—and the Rebels hold too many advantages here.
For instance, Arkansas relies heavily on their run game, averaging 199.2 yards per game (28th in the FBS). But Ole Miss counters with the top-ranked run defense in the nation, allowing only 76.6 rushing yards per game and 2.13 yards per carry.
This means Arkansas may have to air it out more—something Taylen Green can handle, as he’s known for his deep passing threat. However, he’s also among the slowest quarterbacks to release, behind an offensive line that allows 2.12 sacks per game, while Ole Miss ranks second nationally in sacks per game (4.25).
The bottom line? Ole Miss may not blow up the scoreboard, but they’ll do just enough to defeat Arkansas and cover the spread in Week 10.
Prediction: Ole Miss 27, Arkansas 16
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