The MAC is one of the most wide-open conferences in college football, and both the Ohio Bobcats and Toledo Rockets still have a chance to make the conference championship game. However, one of them will have to cede its aspirations when the teams meet in Week 13.
Who will prevail? Our Ohio vs. Toledo prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Ohio vs. Toledo Betting Preview
All Ohio vs. Toledo odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Toledo -1 - Spread
Toledo -1.5 - Moneyline
Toledo -115, Ohio -105 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
7 p.m. ET - Location
The Glass Bowl | Toledo, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
40 degrees, rainy, 20 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
Wednesday night marks the 56th all-time meeting between the Bobcats and the Rockets. It’s a matchup that has been kind to Toledo, both recently and historically. Jason Candle’s team has won the last two clashes (2021-2022) and holds a 33-21-1 head-to-head advantage heading into this Week 13 encounter. They’re favored by the oddsmakers this time around, but only marginally.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That hasn’t always been a comfortable place for the Rockets to be this season. Their three losses in 2024 have come when favored, and they’ve been even worse at covering the spread when going into the game as a favorite (3-5 ATS when favored). Ohio hasn’t won as an outright underdog this year but is 2-2 ATS as a spread underdog — something to consider in a tight game.
Ohio’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is closely aligned with Vegas, making the Bobcats the slightest of road underdogs. Ohio has a 49.2% chance to win the game, per the metric. The Bobcats end with the struggling Ball State Cardinals, so a win on Wednesday would really put them in a good position to make the conference championship
- at Toledo: 49.2%
- vs. Ball State: 75.1%
Toledo’s Winning Probability
The goal for Toledo is to win the conference, and though it’s not likely, it’s certainly possible. The Rockets end the year at the Akron Zips with a good chance to win. At that point, they’d need a couple of other teams to lose and a few tie-breakers to go their way. Toledo has a 50.8% chance to win this week, per CFN’s FPM metric.
- vs. Ohio: 50.8%
- at Akron: 66.9%
Prediction for Ohio vs. Toledo
Both of these rosters have been constructed in similar ways, and that’s evident in looking at the numbers.
Typically, we wouldn’t think of defense when these two teams come to mind, but they’ve had the best defensive units in the MAC this season.
Ohio and Toledo each rank inside the top 35 in opponent yards per play and excel at stopping both the pass and the run. If there’s any weakness in either, it’s that the Bobcats have struggled a bit more against the pass, but that shouldn’t matter in Wednesday’s conditions.
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Let’s talk about the weather on Wednesday night. It’s a MACtion fan’s paradise (although probably not for those in attendance). The temperature will be in the 30s, it will rain, and wind gusts in the high 30s are expected.
So, whatever plans these offenses had of throwing the ball around the field should probably be scratched.
That could give one team the advantage.
Toledo is 113th nationally in rushing. We could see Tucker Gleason tuck it and run more to add a number to the running game, but I don’t love the matchup here for the Rockets in these conditions.
On the other side of the ball, Ohio is ninth nationally in yards per carry, averaging 5.5 yards a tote. Parker Navarro has been growing as a passer, but his bread and butter is adding to the rushing game.
Our model has the Bobcats as slight favorites on a neutral (also read as “dry, warm, and not windy”) playing field, so with the weather forecast potentially turning this into a game from the 1920s, I really like the Bobcats in this one.
Expect a sloppy game with several turnovers, but I actually don’t think this hurts the offenses as much as it does the defenses. The coaches might become more aggressive, knowing the kicking and punting games are likely to be treacherous; when that happens, teams typically score more.
I know the total is dropping, but I have a feeling this could tick over.
Prediction: Ohio 27, Toldeo 22
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