The expanded College Football Playoff has upped the ante for regular-season games, but a showdown between the 6-1 Ohio State Buckeyes and the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions would be massive in any format. So, who has the edge in this critical Big Ten battle?
Our Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to each team’s season outlook—as they prepare for the final push of the 2024 college football season.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -1.5 - Spread
Ohio State -3 - Moneyline
Ohio State -155, Penn State +130 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Penn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
51 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
While Ohio State fans focus on their rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines 365 days a year, there’s a substantial rivalry element behind their now-annual matchup with Penn State. Although the Nittany Lions had success early in the series, the tide has turned very much toward the Buckeyes in recent years. Ryan Day’s team enters the Week 10 clash having won the last seven.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The odds are currently in favor of another Ohio State win, but it’s worth noting that the CFN FPM actually leans toward a narrow Nittany Lions win. Both teams carry a 3-4 record against the spread into this game, so something has to give (unless there’s a push!). The Buckeyes have failed to cover in their last two outings, including in the narrow loss to Oregon.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
According to CFN FPM, Ohio State is a slight underdog, with a 47.5% chance of flying back home with a win on Saturday. A win against the Nittany Lions would keep the Buckeyes in the driver’s seat to make the Big Ten Championship game, as they also have a key matchup with undefeated Indiana later in the season.
- vs. Purdue: 98.7%
- at Northwestern: 95.3%
- vs. Indiana: 70.3%
- vs. Michigan: 87.4%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Penn State has a 52.5% chance of overcoming the Buckeyes at home. If the Nittany Lions win, they can essentially punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff and potentially the Big Ten title game, given the ease of their final stretch of the season.
- vs. Washington: 91.9%
- at Purdue: 94.7%
- at Minnesota: 81.1%
- vs. Maryland: 95.5%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Penn State
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter gives the edge to Penn State, especially with the home-field advantage. But there’s one thing the FPM can’t quantify: the grit a team shows in high-stakes moments.
Each season, James Franklin’s Penn State squads face pivotal tests where pressure is a defining factor. So far, the Nittany Lions have met the challenge—edging out USC in Week 7 and enduring a hard-fought win against Wisconsin at Camp Randall last weekend.
Yet, neither of those games matches the intensity Ohio State will bring to Happy Valley. This matchup has all the makings of a turning point or a potential stumble for Penn State.
On the other side, Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes have shown they can falter in late-season, top-10 battles.
Something’s got to give.
Both teams have flashed moments of dominance and shown vulnerabilities this season, and the health of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar could be a game-changer. Allar’s ball security will be key, especially since Ohio State’s offense has struggled to sustain long drives—a shortfall that plays into Penn State’s strengths.
Coming into the season, I saw Ohio State as a CFP National Championship frontrunner, but their offensive line has been less solid than expected. Nebraska revealed some of those cracks last Saturday, though they lacked the firepower to fully exploit them.
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On paper, I’m leaning Penn State’s way, particularly with the 3-point spread. Tight end Tyler Warren could give Ohio State’s linebackers fits, and if Allar is in top form, he and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki have the creativity to land a couple of surprise touchdowns. In a defensive slugfest, that could be decisive.
Yes, Ohio State has weapons like Jeremiah Smith, but I question their ability to establish the run against Penn State’s defensive line. And I expect Penn State’s edge rushers to give Will Howard a rough night.
Call it an upset, a breakthrough—whatever you like. But don’t be shocked if Penn State grinds out a win in this one.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Ohio State 20
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