The introduction of a 12-team College Football Playoff has added a new wrinkle to the regular season in college football this year. We saw in Georgia-Alabama that it doesn’t diminish the importance or entertainment of high-profile games, but it does change how their outcomes will affect the College Football Playoff field.
Ohio State vs. Oregon is a clash of titans, featuring one of the Big Ten’s traditional stalwarts and a brand new team to the conference. While the loser certainly isn’t out of the playoff hunt, the winner is in the driver’s seat. Using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter, here we’ll examine the implications of the weekend’s biggest game.
Will the Winner of Ohio State-Oregon Make the College Football Playoff?
Not only is this a huge matchup that will give the winner a quality win in its toughest game on the schedule, but as a conference game, it will have a huge say in deciding the winner of the Big Ten.
That’s significant, given that the winner of one of football’s top conferences will certainly be a top-four seed.
That’s probably the most significant point here, as both Oregon and Ohio State have a greater than 72% chance to make the playoff, according to CFN’s College Football Playoff Meter. The odds that both make the playoffs are around 62.4%.
Oregon’s College Football Playoff probability will likely be the highest in the country with a win, given that the Ducks have a 50% chance of going undefeated if they win Saturday. Not only that, but they also already have a win over Group of Five darling Boise State.
The Buckeyes have more work to do, simply given the schedule. There are four Big Ten teams with undefeated conference records, and each of the other three plays the Buckeyes while none of the others play each other. A win wouldn’t lock up a College Football Playoff berth for the Buckeyes, but they’d be in the driver’s seat to win the conference as they’ll have the opportunity to give every other undefeated team at loss.
A win affords the Buckeyes a later loss.
For each, that’s only to make the Playoff as a conference champion. There’s still the likely possibility that the Big Ten gets multiple teams in the CFP.
Barring a complete meltdown, the winner of this game will make the College Football Playoff, even if they lose one, two, or perhaps even three more games.
Could the Loser of Ohio State vs. Oregon Still Make the Playoff?
While it doesn’t take the urgency out of the game, the 12-team playoff format is a bit more forgiving to the loser. It’s likely that the Big Ten is going to get three or even four teams in the College Football Playoff. But, given that there are only five teams with one or fewer losses, the loser can still make the Big Ten Championship.
The math is simple for Ohio State: If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon, they will still control their destiny. With remaining games against undefeated Penn State and Indiana and one-loss Nebraska, the Buckeyes would hold the tie-breaker over every other potential one-loss team in the conference.
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That means the Buckeyes could lose to Oregon, win out, and get a second crack at the Ducks with a College Football Playoff bye on the line.
It’s more complicated for an automatic bid for the Ducks, who would root for Ohio State to win out if they fall short against the Buckeyes on Saturday. The Ducks have a much higher chance to win out than any of the other non-Ohio State Big Ten undefeated teams.
However, to guarantee a shot at the conference title, they’d need fewer losses than the rest of the conference. Otherwise, it would go to a complex set of tie-breakers, most of which have more to do with the strength of the conference schedule than anything the Ducks can actually control.
Still, a one-loss Oregon team is very likely to make the College Football Playoff. As mentioned, the Ducks have a win over Boise State. If they’re 11-1 with the only loss being to Ohio State, it’d be hard to envision a scenario where they’re not one of the seven best teams without a conference championship.
That being said, the first-round bye in the College Football Playoff is crucial. Teams want to be conference champions to get a top-four seed.
Saturday’s Ohio State vs. Oregon game may be the first of multiple this season — that’s good for the sport. College Football Network’s FPM will track every team’s playoff chances each week. For one of these teams, a playoff berth is likely after a win this weekend. For the other, hope isn’t lost, but there’s work to do.
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