The expanded portion of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and now it’s back to what makes this tournament electric: the top four teams squaring off for it all. After wildly different quarterfinal showings, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns are set to collide for a spot in the national championship.
Who steps up under the brightest lights? Our Ohio State vs. Texas prediction dives into everything you need to know—from betting odds to the stakes in this monumental CFP semifinal.
Ohio State vs. Texas College Football Playoff Semifinals Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Jan. 10, 2025. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -3.5 - Spread
Ohio State -6 - Moneyline
Ohio State -258, Texas +210 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Jan. 10 - Location
AT&T Stadium | Arlington, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Both teams were favored in every game this season, including the playoff. However, following a 5-1 ATS start to the year, Texas has gone 3-6 since. Meanwhile, Ohio State covered all three of its games as a single-digit favorite in 2024.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
In terms of the total, the programs’ recent trends point toward the over:
- Texas and Ohio State have pushed the total over in back-to-back playoff games despite entering the postseason on under streaks.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
The Buckeyes haven’t had a three-loss season since 2011, and for them, it’s championship or bust. After regular-season losses to Oregon and Michigan, Ryan Day was under immense pressure to deliver in the College Football Playoff—and he has.
Ohio State has rolled to a 2-0 CFP record, crushing Tennessee 42-17 and Oregon 41-21. Heading into the semifinals, they’re easily the hottest team left in the playoff.
- at Texas: 58.9%
Texas’ Winning Probability
It hasn’t been perfect, but Steve Sarkisian has Texas one win away from their first national title appearance since 2010. Last year, they came close, falling 37-31 to Washington.
After two losses to Georgia this season, the Longhorns bounced back in the playoff with a dominant 38-24 win over Clemson and a gritty 39-31 double-overtime victory against Arizona State.
- vs. Ohio State: 41.1%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Texas
While quarterback matchups grab the headlines, the real story is how each QB handles the opposing defense. In this game, I’ll take Will Howard against Texas’ defense over Quinn Ewers against Ohio State’s ferocious unit.
Following their loss to Oregon, Ohio State’s defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made a critical adjustment, moving Jordan Hancock to single-high safety. This unleashed Caleb Downs closer to the line of scrimmage, maximizing his playmaking ability.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The result? A defense giving up just 12.5 points per game in the stretch run. In contrast, Texas has struggled with consistency, as seen in their game against Arizona State, where they missed two field goals, averaged just 1.8 yards per carry, and surrendered 28 points after halftime.
Ewers had solid numbers—20 of 30 for 322 yards, three TDs, and one INT—but his pocket awareness has regressed, and he’s prone to costly mistakes. Ohio State’s defense, with 12 sacks in two CFP games, is well-equipped to exploit this.
The metrics back it up: Texas ranks 60th in early-down EPA and 30th in success rate, while Ohio State’s defense ranks third and 11th in those categories.
Even if Texas finds a way to slow down Chip Kelly’s offense, Ohio State’s loaded roster of playmakers—Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, and Quinshon Judkins—combined with their downfield aggression, will be too much to handle.
Expect the Buckeyes to capitalize on Texas’ inconsistencies and secure a commanding victory to punch their ticket to the national championship.
Prediction: Ohio State 30, Texas 20
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