The Ohio State Buckeyes boast a dominant 9-2 record in their all-time series against the Oregon Ducks, but the Ducks have claimed the last two matchups, including a nail-biting 32-31 win earlier this season. While a rematch in the Big Ten Championship slipped away after Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, fate has set the stage for a showdown in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
Who takes the edge this time? Our Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to the high stakes for both teams as they collide in the storied Rose Bowl.
Ohio State vs. Oregon College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -2.5 - Spread
Ohio State -2.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -142, Oregon +120 - Over/Under
56 points - Game Time
5 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Jan. 1 - Location
Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Oregon has only been an underdog once this season — its first meeting with the Buckeyes, and we all know how that ended up.
Outside of that contest, the Ducks were double-digit favorites in all but one other game: the regular-season finale against the Penn State Nittany Lions. They not only covered in that game (-3.5) but defeated their opponent 45-37.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have been favored in every game this season and have gone 4-2 ATS in their last six.
They’ve also been a cash cow for under bettors, with the total failing to go over in six of their last eight matchups.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
While the Buckeyes haven’t lost more than two games in a single season since 2011, they also haven’t won a postseason contest since 2021 — until they beat the brakes off the Tennessee Vols 42-17 in Round 1 of the playoff.
Ryan Day’s middling record against top-five (4-7) and CFP (2-3) teams has some fans concerned, but he has his program in position to challenge for another national championship.
- at Oregon: 46.2%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
The 2024 season is just Dan Lanning’s third as Oregon’s head coach, but he’s performed so well that he’s been linked to NFL jobs this winter. He’s guided the Ducks to 10-3, 12-2, and 13-0 campaigns with back-to-back bowl wins, and now they are in the driver’s seat as the No. 1 team in the CFP.
- vs. Ohio State: 53.8%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Oregon
The last time these two teams met, we saw Ohio State QB Will Howard literally sliding the game away in Autzen Stadium as Oregon bizarrely (and maybe intentionally) put too many men on the field, sacrificing a five-yard penalty to burn precious seconds. It was a baffling end to a game full of drama.
While we may not witness another head-scratcher like that, rematches—especially with everything on the line—tend to deliver the unexpected.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Yes, Ohio State lit up Tennessee’s secondary, but Oregon’s defensive backfield is a completely different challenge. Ranked fifth in EPA per dropback and ninth in dropback success rate, the Ducks boast one of the nation’s top pass defenses.
Ohio State’s playmakers—true freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith and future NFL star Emeka Egbuka—will still have their moments, but Will Howard won’t enjoy the same comfort he had in their last meeting. Gone are the days of 24-of-29 passing for 10.7 yards per attempt against this defense.
Oregon’s pass rush leads the Big Ten with 3.07 sacks per game, and edge rushers Jordan Burch and Matayo Uiagalelei are poised to wreak havoc against an Ohio State offensive line that has struggled in pass protection. With Donovan Jackson playing out of position at left tackle instead of his natural left guard spot, the Buckeyes could have their hands full.
That said, Ohio State had the advantage in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball last time, forcing Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel to create on the move. Gabriel delivered under pressure in that game, and he’ll need another stellar performance to keep pace with Chip Kelly’s unleashed Buckeyes offense.
This rematch has all the makings of another high-scoring, back-and-forth thriller with both teams trading haymakers. But this time, Oregon comes in with the edge: more rest, better preparation, stronger QB play, and sharper coaching. Those factors could be the difference.
Expect the Ducks to punch their ticket to the CFP semifinals, where they’ll meet the winner of the Texas Longhorns and Arizona State Sun Devils showdown.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Ohio State 31
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