The Ohio State Buckeyes may have stumbled against the Oregon Ducks, but all their goals are still well within reach. With a showdown against the Indiana Hoosiers just around the corner, this week has all the makings of a classic look-ahead trap game. But do the Northwestern Wildcats have the firepower to push the Buckeyes to their limit?
On neutral turf, the Wildcats will be gunning for the upset of the season. Can they pull it off? Let’s break down this Ohio State vs. Northwestern matchup to see if they have what it takes.
Ohio State vs. Northwestern Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Northwestern odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -24 - Spread
Ohio State -28 - Moneyline
N/A - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Wrigley Field | Chicago, IL - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
Big Ten Network
The only two questions on Saturday are whether the Buckeyes treat this as a look-ahead game and what percentage of fans will be able to see the football game from their Wrigley Field seats.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With an over/under set at 44 and a 28.5-point spread, Vegas has no faith in Northwestern’s offense, projecting a final score around 36-8 in Ohio State’s favor.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter thinks this game is just standard procedure before Ohio State’s real game next week, making the Buckeyes 24-point favorites against the Wildcats.
Their winning probability in this game is 95.6%, the Buckeyes’ highest remaining winning probability of the season. Per the metric, they’re heavy favorites in all three games.
- at Northwestern: 95.6%
- vs. Indiana: 71.6%
- at Michigan: 91.3%
Northwestern’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Northwestern has a 4.4% chance of beating the Buckeyes at Wrigley Field. The Wildcats are stuck at four wins, and finding a fifth or sixth will be extremely difficult, given their remaining schedule.
- vs. Ohio State: 4.4%
- at Michigan: 16.7%
- vs. Illinois: 24.7%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Northwestern
Ohio State controls its destiny in the Big Ten and holds a clear path to potentially securing the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. To make that vision a reality, the Buckeyes must remain undefeated through the regular season, including a crucial home showdown with unbeaten Indiana, and then avenge their loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.
But first, there’s this week—a classic setup for a trap game. While the Hoosiers loom on the horizon, Ohio State faces Northwestern, a team better than its record suggests. Yet, as I’ve pointed out before, Ohio State operates on a different level in potential blowout scenarios. Depth is not a concern; it’s a defining strength.
The Buckeyes’ second-string players would start at most other Big Ten programs, making them too talented to look past.
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Northwestern, on the other hand, has come back down to Earth. David Braun deserves credit for his efforts, but last season’s success largely stemmed from weaker Big Ten competition. While the Wildcats have shown they can spring an upset—like their win over Maryland—Ohio State’s talent exists in an entirely different tier.
The Buckeyes should handle this matchup comfortably, setting the stage for a blockbuster clash with Indiana. The real question is whether they can cover the spread.
As always, Ohio State’s depth is the key. Even if Ryan Day decides to rest starters after building a commanding lead—a move he’s rarely made this season—the backups entering the game are five-star-caliber players.
While I don’t think Ohio State has hit its ceiling yet this season, this isn’t the game where they’ll need to. Northwestern’s offense, which has struggled all year, won’t pose a serious challenge to the Buckeyes’ elite defense.
The spread, hovering around four touchdowns, gives me some hesitation. However, I still like Ohio State to cover. Northwestern may sneak in a few late points, led by Jack Lausch, to move the ball late in the game. While Ohio State has been known to ease up on leads, as they did against Purdue, I expect both teams to find the end zone in the fourth quarter, pushing the total over.
While there may be stronger betting options this weekend, I feel confident in Ohio State covering the spread and pushing the game total over.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Northwestern 9
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