After the heinous attacks on the city of New Orleans, the final quarterfinal game of the 12-team College Football Playoff has finally come. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Georgia Bulldogs square off in the Allstate Sugar Bowl and the stakes couldn’t be higher—win, and it’s a ticket to the semifinals.
Our Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction dives into the crucial questions, breaks down the latest betting odds, and delivers a final score prediction for this College Football Playoff showdown.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Sugar Bowl Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Jan. 2, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -1.5 - Spread
Notre Dame -1 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -115, Georgia -105 - Over/Under
46 points - Game time
8:45 p.m. ET - Location
Caesars Superdome | New Orleans, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
Game played indoors - How to Watch
ESPN
There’s not a rich history between the Bulldogs and Notre Dame, with just three previous matchups between the two storied programs. Facing Georgia hasn’t been that lucky for the Irish, with three defeats, including the 1981 Sugar Bowl and the most recent matchup (in Athens) in 2019. All three previous games have been one-score affairs, setting the scene for a tight game.
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The latest Notre Dame vs. Georgia betting odds showcase just how close this Sugar Bowl matchup may be. Early lines have the Bulldogs as a one-point favorite, while CFN FPM gives Georgia a field goal advantage. The Irish won the only other time they were an underdog in 2024, while Smart’s SEC champions have covered the spread just four times all season.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Notre Dame has a 46.8% chance of beating the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. While disheartening for Fighting Irish fans, it’s worth noting that our metric made the program a slender favorite over the Indiana Hoosiers in their first round matchup, and everyone saw how that game played out.
- vs. Georgia: 46.8%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
Conversely, our metric gives Georgia a 53.2% chance of fighting off the Irish in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. This is one of the most difficult matchups that the Bulldogs could have drawn based on the CFN FPM win probabilities, with multiple teams given less than a 40% chance of beating the SEC champion.
- vs. Notre Dame: 53.2%
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Georgia
As I dig into this Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction for their Sugar Bowl showdown, the intrigue is impossible to ignore. Rare matchups like this carry a special kind of weight, where high stakes and storied legacies collide to create drama that feels larger than life.
Can Marcus Freeman’s 12-1 Fighting Irish break through the College Football Playoff barrier and secure a victory that cements their place as true contenders? Or will Georgia, fresh off an overtime thriller to win the SEC title, prove once again that they’re the dominant force in college football—overcoming adversity and exceeding expectations along the way?
Georgia’s biggest challenge will come from the absence of QB Carson Beck. The star signal-caller, who led the Bulldogs through a season of ups and downs, sustained an arm injury during the SEC Championship win over Texas and is sidelined for the Sugar Bowl. Stepping into the spotlight is Gunner Stockton.
While Stockton looked solid in relief against Texas, his move to the starting role unquestionably alters the dynamics of Georgia’s offense. The pressure now shifts to an offensive line that hasn’t quite matched Georgia’s usual elite standard and a backfield that will need to carry the load.
This change could play right into Notre Dame’s hands. The Fighting Irish might be the most physical team in the country, combining a ferocious defense with a balanced offense featuring both power runs and explosive plays.
Georgia’s offensive line will have its hands full with Notre Dame’s disruptive defense, led by standout DL Rylie Mills. Meanwhile, Stockton will face a stiff test against a secondary anchored by Xavier Watts, Adon Shuler, and CFN Freshman All-American Leonard Moore, all capable of limiting Georgia’s already inconsistent passing attack.
Defensively, Georgia remains formidable under Kirby Smart, with playmakers like Malaki Starks, Jalon Walker, and Chaz Chambliss keeping the unit strong. Yet, Notre Dame’s offense is equipped to find and exploit cracks in this defense.
In 2024, only three SEC teams allowed more 20+ yard rushing plays than Georgia, and their struggles with 10+ yard runs highlight a potential weakness. Enter Jeremiyah Love, one of the most electrifying players in college football. His unforgettable 98-yard touchdown run against Indiana was just one of many moments showcasing his ability to shred defenses.
Pair Notre Dame’s explosive offense with a defense that has given up more than 20 points in just two of their 13 games, and the formula to challenge Georgia becomes clear. Freeman’s disciplined, prepared, and relentless teams are a testament to why he’s garnered NFL interest and earned a well-deserved contract extension.
Right now, Notre Dame might just be the most dangerous team in the country. But underestimating Kirby Smart’s Georgia squad is never a good idea. Smart has an unmatched ability to rally his team and use doubt as motivation to push them to exceed expectations.
Still, this could be Notre Dame’s moment. In the Sugar Bowl, Freeman’s squad looks ready to finally break through—and they might just have Kirby Smart’s number this time.
Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Georgia 23
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