Both the Northern Illinois Huskies and Fresno State Bulldogs are navigating a state of flux this bowl season, with several starters having entered the transfer portal.
So, which team will rise above the adversity and deliver on the blue turf in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl? Let’s dive into this Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State prediction.
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Betting Preview
All Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 23, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Fresno State -1.5 - Spread
Northern Illinois -3 - Moneyline
Northern Illinois -142, Fresno State +120 - Over/Under
41 points - Game Time
Monday, Dec. 23, 12:30 p.m. ET - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, ID - How To Watch
ESPN
In one of the weirder line movements (or lack thereof) of bowl season, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl started at Northern Illinois -2.5 and hasn’t really moved, despite both teams losing multiple starters to the transfer portal.
Both starting quarterbacks have indicated they’re unlikely to play in a game that already had a low total. Accordingly, Vegas thinks this will be a rock fight and one of the lowest-scoring games of bowl season.
Northern Illinois’ Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Huskies, making them underdogs by 1.5 points. That translates to a winning probability of 47.2%.
The biggest question is at the quarterback position, but Northern Illinois has also lost a couple of defensive starters and multiple rotational players on the defensive line.
- vs. Fresno State: 47.2%
Fresno State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Bulldogs are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 52.8%.
Fresno State is in a transitional period after hiring Matt Entz as head coach. He won’t coach in the bowl game, but the Bulldogs will look to secure a winning record after losing three of their last four to close out the regular season.
- vs. Northern Illinois: 52.8%
Prediction for Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Fair or not, one of my go-to betting rules during bowl season is simple: always bet against the MAC. As a conference, the MAC has stumbled through the transfer portal era like a fish out of water.
So, when I see a tight spread involving a MAC team in December, I instinctively start looking for reasons not to back them.
Enter Mikey Keene, Fresno State’s talented quarterback, who’s sitting out the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl after entering the transfer portal. Without Keene, the Bulldogs lack an obvious answer at quarterback.
That said, Northern Illinois starter Ethan Hampton is also out for this game, which makes things tricky to handicap. The Huskies, at least, have a clearer plan: freshman Josh Holst will make just his second career start.
Holst hasn’t exactly lit up the stat sheet, averaging barely five yards per attempt this season. Still, he’s a dangerous runner who can create opportunities both on designed runs and scrambles.
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With an uncertain quarterback situation and down two of their top three receivers, Fresno State will likely lean on the ground game against a Northern Illinois defense that excels against the pass.
Because of that, I expect the Bulldogs to roll with the more mobile Joshua Wood at quarterback. If Fresno isn’t likely to find success throwing the ball, it makes sense to utilize Wood’s rushing ability for an offense that’s struggled on the ground all season.
That matchup seems to favor Northern Illinois’ defense, but I trust Fresno State to come out more motivated. Popular interim head coach Tim Skipper will lead the Bulldogs for the last time, and I think his players will rally behind him.
It’s shaping up to be an ugly game on the blue turf, but I expect the Mountain West squad to find a bit more rhythm offensively than their MAC counterparts.
Even with Fresno missing two starting defensive tackles, their depth on defense should make the difference over time. Still, with a total this low, don’t shy away from taking the under.
Prediction: Fresno State 21, Northern Illinois 13
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