The North Texas Mean Green found themselves on the wrong end of a classic “Service Academy” game against the Army Black Knights last Saturday. Despite the setback, there’s still a path for them to secure a bowl bid and finish the year on a high note.
Their next challenge comes in the form of a UTSA Roadrunners squad that has been something of an enigma this season. After losing several key seniors from last year, UTSA hasn’t quite matched the expectations set for them. While the matchup itself offers plenty of intrigue, it’s the total that takes center stage. Points are likely, but will there be enough to hit the lofty mark set for this game? Dive into our North Texas vs. UTSA prediction to find out.
North Texas vs. UTSA Betting Preview
All North Texas vs. UTSA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
North Texas -1 - Moneyline
North Texas -110, UTSA -110 - Over/Under
72 points - Game Time
Nov. 15, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Alamodome | San Antonio - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
For the casual fan, this game is a dream come true. The points total is one of the highest of any game all season, and it’s expected to be close, with North Texas as just a two-point favorite. In a weak TV spot, all eyes should be on San Antonio on Friday night.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With an over/under set at 72.5 and a two-point spread, Vegas projects a close final score of around 37-35 in North Texas’ favor.
North Texas’ Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter has this as a near pick ’em but makes the Mean Green the slightest of underdogs. Their winning probability in this game is 49.6%, the Mean Green’s lowest remaining winning probability of the season.
- at UTSA: 49.6%
- vs. ECU: 52.8%
- at Temple: 63.6%
UTSA’s Winning Probability
Conversely, UTSA has a 50.4% chance of beating the Mean Green at home. While the Roadrunners have ample opportunities to collect a sixth win, they’d like to get it out of the way early in search of a potential winning record, with a game against Temple representing a likely win.
- vs. North Texas: 50.4%
- vs. Temple: 68.8%
- at Army: 11.7%
Prediction for North Texas vs. UTSA
I don’t think this is a particularly bold take, but I fully expect plenty of points in this game.
North Texas, led by quarterback Chandler Morris, boasts one of the top offenses in the Group of Five. However, their defense tells a different story. While it limits explosive plays, it struggles mightily in defensive success rate, ranking near the bottom.
We saw this play out last week when Army methodically dismantled them. The Black Knights averaged around 4.5 yards per play with only one play over 20 yards but dominated time of possession, holding the ball for nearly 42 minutes. This included a grueling 13:52 touchdown drive in the second half, which limited North Texas to a season-low 55 offensive plays.
Can UTSA replicate that formula?
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A quick look at the Roadrunners suggests otherwise. This isn’t the high-flying UTSA offense of recent years. They’re averaging just 5.0 yards per play, ranking 102nd nationally, with a meager 38% success rate. Their inability to dink and dunk effectively is a major issue.
And that’s the secret to beating this North Texas defense—sustaining long drives with short, methodical gains. UTSA simply doesn’t excel in that area.
On the other hand, North Texas’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, ranking seventh nationally in yards per play—last week’s performance being an exception.
The blueprint to beating the Mean Green is clear: control possession and force turnovers. But I don’t believe UTSA has the tools to execute that plan. North Texas has the ability to score quickly and often, and while the Roadrunners might put up points, I don’t see them keeping pace.
If this game plays out as expected, North Texas should win comfortably, and while the total might come close, I lean toward it staying just under.
Prediction: North Texas 42, UTSA 28
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