While the North Texas Mean Green got “Service Academy’d” against the Army Black Knights last Saturday, they’ll have a chance to make a bowl and have a good finish to the year.
Standing in the way is a weird UTSA Roadrunners team that hasn’t quite lived up to the hype after losing several seniors from last year’s squad. While the game itself is intriguing, the total is the story here. There will be points, but will there be enough to clear a lofty bar? Find out what we think in this North Texas vs. UTSA prediction.
North Texas vs. UTSA Betting Preview
All North Texas vs. UTSA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
North Texas -2 - Moneyline
North Texas -125, UTSA +105 - Over/Under
72.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 15, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Alamodome | San Antonio - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
For the casual fan, this game is a dream come true. The points total is one of the highest of any game all season, and it’s expected to be close, with North Texas as just a two-point favorite. In a weak TV spot, all eyes should be on San Antonio on Friday night.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With an over/under set at 72.5 and a two-point spread, Vegas projects a close final score of around 37-35 in North Texas’ favor.
North Texas’ Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter has this as a near pick ’em but makes the Mean Green the slightest of underdogs. Their winning probability in this game is 49.6%, the Mean Green’s lowest remaining winning probability of the season.
- at UTSA: 49.6%
- vs. ECU: 52.8%
- at Temple: 63.6%
UTSA’s Winning Probability
Conversely, UTSA has a 50.4% chance of beating the Mean Green at home. While the Roadrunners have ample opportunities to collect a sixth win, they’d like to get it out of the way early in search of a potential winning record, with a game against Temple representing a likely win.
- vs. North Texas: 50.4%
- vs. Temple: 68.8%
- at Army: 11.7%
Prediction for North Texas vs. UTSA
I don’t believe this is a particularly hot take, but I think there should be lots of points in this game.
North Texas’ offense, led by quarterback Chandler Morris, is one of the best in the Group of Five But while the defense doesn’t give up a lot of explosive plays, it is one of the worst in terms of defensive success rate.
We saw that last week as Army bludgeoned them to death. The Black Knights averaged around 4.5 yards a play with just one play of 20+ yards but held the ball for nearly 42 minutes against the Mean Green. That included a near-record 13:52 touchdown drive in the second half that helped limit the North Texas offense to a season-low 55 plays.
But are the Roadrunners built to do the same?
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A quick glance suggests they aren’t. This isn’t your older sibling’s UTSA team, as the offense has not been great this season. Beyond a 5.0 yards-per-play number that is 102nd in the country, the Roadrunners have an extremely low 38% success rate. They just don’t dink and dunk well.
Dinking and dunking are the keys to success against this North Texas defense, and I’m not convinced UTSA can do that well.
On the flip side, North Texas’ offense (last week notwithstanding) has been clicking on all cylinders, ranking seventh nationally in yards per play.
The formula to beat the Mean Green is clear on film: Hold the ball and force turnovers. I just don’t think UTSA will do that effectively. North Texas can score in a hurry, and while this Roadrunners offense will put up some points, I just don’t see them hanging with the Mean Green.
Assuming this game isn’t as close as the line suggests, I think the total stays just under in a somewhat comfortable win.
Prediction: North Texas 42, UTSA 28
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