The North Texas Mean Green and Texas State Bobcats have clashed 39 times in their history, with North Texas holding a commanding 29-7-3 advantage. However, it’s been nearly three decades since their last meeting, when the Mean Green won three straight from 1992 to 1994 during their Southland Conference days.
Who takes the bragging rights this time? Our North Texas vs. Texas State prediction dives into everything you need to know—betting odds, key storylines, and what’s at stake as these two teams square off in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl.
North Texas vs. Texas State First Responder Bowl Betting Preview
All North Texas vs. Texas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Jan. 3, 2025. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas State -11 - Spread
Texas State -14 - Moneyline
Texas State -575, North Texas +425 - Over/Under
65.5 points - Game Time
4:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Jan. 3 - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium | Dallas - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
North Texas is 0-5 against the spread entering this one, but it’s not as if Texas State has been all that dominant in that regard. Its 3-4 ATS as a double-digit point favorite and 1-3 ATS in out-of-conference games this season.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
If you made a bet solely on trends, it would be on the total:
- The over hit in seven of the Mean Green’s last 10 contests.
- The over cashed in four of the Bobcats’ last five.
North Texas’ Winning Probability
Eric Morris’ first season at North Texas ended with a 5-7 record, but Year 2 brought modest improvement, as the Mean Green finished 6-6 and secured a bowl berth. Morris has continued to establish himself as a QB guru, leading one of the nation’s most high-scoring offenses while building momentum for the program.
- at Texas State: 26.5%
Texas State’s Winning Probability
After eight consecutive losing seasons, Texas State found its answer in head coach G.J. Kinne. He’s turned the Bobcats into a competitive program, delivering back-to-back 7-5 regular seasons and consecutive First Responder Bowl appearances, earning himself a well-deserved contract extension in the process.
- vs. North Texas: 73.5%
Prediction for North Texas vs. Texas State
Neither team’s defense is inspiring confidence. North Texas ranks 93rd in EPA per play, while Texas State’s late-season struggles saw them allow 52 and 38 points in their final two games.
The Mean Green’s quarterback situation doesn’t help their case. With Chandler Morris entering the transfer portal, freshman Drew Mestemaker will step in, bringing just four career pass attempts to the table.
Meanwhile, Texas State’s offense, led by Jordan McCloud, has been electric. The Bobcats average 474 yards per game—good for fifth in the FBS—and are perfectly positioned to exploit North Texas’ defense, which allows a staggering 456 yards per game, the worst mark in the FBS.
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Momentum is firmly on Texas State’s side. The Bobcats have won three of their last four games outright and against the spread, while North Texas has faltered, failing to cover since Oct. 19 and dropping five of their last six contests.
Texas State opened as 7.5-point favorites, and with an offense averaging 45 points per game over the past month, the line movement in their favor feels justified. As long as McCloud is under center, expect the Bobcats to handle the Mean Green with ease. Take Texas State to win and cover.
Prediction: Texas State 45, North Texas 16
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