Both the North Carolina Tar Heels and Boston College Eagles have had roller-coaster seasons but can still finish the year with strong records in the ACC.
While North Carolina clinched a bowl berth last week, the Eagles still need one more win to achieve postseason eligibility. As slight underdogs this week, can they pull out a win? Find out which way we lean in this North Carolina vs. Boston College prediction.
North Carolina vs. Boston College Betting Preview
All North Carolina vs. Boston College odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boston College -4 - Spread
North Carolina -3 - Moneyline
North Carolina -148, Boston College +124 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, Noon ET - Location
Alumni Stadium | Chestnut Hill, Mass. - Predicted Weather at Kick
42 degrees, rainy, 13 mph winds - How To Watch
The CW
North Carolina just got bowl-eligible last week, but our metrics have them as underdogs. Boston College, on the other hand, is a three-point underdog on the Vegas line as the Eagles fight to gain bowl eligibility.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Interestingly, it’s Boston College that has been substantially better against the spread this season, going 6-4 to North Carolina’s 2-8. The spread and total imply a close game, with an expected score close to 29-26, in favor of the Tar Heels.
North Carolina’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is much lower on the Tar Heels, who are looking to lock in another winning season under Mack Brown, who just announced he has no plans to retire. While Vegas favors the road team, our FPM gives it just a 37.4% chance to win Saturday.
- at Boston College: 37.4%
- vs. NC State: 49.6%
Boston College’s Winning Probability
Boston College has two games remaining to find the win that can get it to six Ws and a bowl berth. CFN’s FPM thinks the Eagles will have a decent chance to get that win Saturday against the Tar Heels. If not, they’ll need to play a great game against Pittsburgh to accomplish that goal.
- vs. North Carolina: 62.6%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 48.8%
Prediction for North Carolina vs. Boston College
The predicted weather is making this game tough to handicap. It’s going to be cold, windy, and rainy when the Eagles host the Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon, making passing difficult for two teams that already struggle to throw the ball consistently.
Both teams want to run the ball but rely on the threat of the pass to move the ball consistently on the ground. But with wind gusts pushing 30 miles per hour, Jacolby Criswell and Grayson James — neither of whom started the season as the QB1 — could have some serious issues throwing the ball.
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The running games, led by a committee on the Boston College side and the one-man workhorse Omarion Hampton on the other, might take a while to get going but will be monumentally important to each offense’s success.
I really think this comes down to holding onto the ball and not committing costly turnovers that flip the game on its head.
Unfortunately for our handicapping purposes, neither team is particularly good or bad at forcing or committing turnovers. Again, it’s a wash.
Ultimately, this is one of those games where the best players tend to tilt the final in their favor. Here, that’s unquestionably Hampton, who is by far the best player on the field.
Hampton is coming off a career game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and could carry that momentum into Chestnut Hill against the Eagles. If Hampton gets 35 touches, don’t be surprised, as the Tar Heels will want to feed their best player in a sloppy game.
While I’m leaning toward taking the Tar Heels and the points, the only good bet is the under here. Ultimately, the best player on the field — and perhaps a turnover or two by James, who has historically been careless with the football — will make the difference.
Take the under and enjoy a fun, ugly game.
Prediction: North Carolina 19, Boston College 14
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