The North Carolina Tar Heels hold a 66-59-4 edge over the Virginia Cavaliers, but that lead might narrow in Week 9. After clinching last year’s 31-27 victory, the Cavaliers are aiming to make it two in a row in 2024.
Get ready for the Saturday night showdown with an in-depth look at the latest odds, spread insights, and our North Carolina vs. Virginia game prediction.
North Carolina vs. Virginia Betting Preview
All North Carolina vs. Virginia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Virginia -6.5 - Spread
Virginia -3 - Moneyline
Virginia -155, North Carolina +150 - Over/Under
58.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Scott Stadium | Charlottesville, Va. - Predicted Weather at Kick
69 degrees, 4 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
The CW Network
The line opened at Virginia -5 with a 57.5-point total and has moved slightly. Not only do Cavaliers bettors have a juicier number, but North Carolina is winless against the spread this season and is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games vs. Virginia. Meanwhile, UVA is 4-1 ATS on the year.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
In terms of the total, the total is the hot pick, as it has hit in:
- Five of UNC’s last six Week 9 games.
- Eight of UVA’s last 12.
- Four of the last six North Carolina-Virginia contests.
North Carolina’s Winning Probability%
The Tar Heels aren’t just looking for their first ACC win this season; they’re looking for their first win since Sept. 14. Unfortunately, neither is likely to come in Week 9, as UNC owns a 33.1% win probability against Virginia.
On the bright side, three of North Carolina’s final four games are above 47%, meaning that elusive victory may not be far off.
- at Florida State: 50.0%
- vs. Wake Forest: 52.8%
- at Boston College: 32.3%
- vs. NC State: 47.2%
Virginia’s Winning Probability
Virginia is on its own losing streak, falling to Louisville and Clemson in back-to-back weeks. And while their Week 9 win probability sits at 66.9%, the rest-of-season outlook is far more dubious:
- at Pittsburgh: 26.6%
- at Notre Dame: 12.8%
- vs. SMU: 34.3%
- at Virginia Tech: 32.3%
Prediction for North Carolina vs. Virginia
Last week dealt a tough blow to both of these teams, though in very different ways.
The Tar Heels managed to tie things up at 34-all with under a minute to go against Georgia Tech, only to watch RB Jamal Haynes break loose for a 68-yard touchdown to seal their fate. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers never found their footing against Clemson, with 21 of their 31 points coming in the fourth quarter—long after the game was already decided.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Scoring hasn’t been the problem for UNC or UVA, with Virginia putting up 30+ points in four of seven matchups and North Carolina hitting that mark in four of its last six. But the defenses have struggled, with the Tar Heels (30.4, 107th) and Cavaliers (25.7, 78th) both ranking in the bottom quarter nationally.
Look for these trends to hold, as Virginia not only covers the spread but also claims the win, with the total easily surpassing the over.
Prediction: Virginia 34, North Carolina 27
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