Week 16 of the 2025-2026 NFL season concludes tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Indianapolis Colts.
As a result of yesterday’s crazy Sunday slate, San Francisco has clinched a spot in the playoffs while the Colts are still hanging on to their slim chances of a postseason berth.
With there being just two weeks left in the regular season after tonight, the AFC playoff picture is getting more and more clarity. Let’s check out the current AFC playoff picture prior to tonight’s kickoff.
AFC Playoff Picture As Of 12/22
Who’s In?
Only two teams have clinched playoff berths thus far in the AFC. The No. 1 seed Denver Broncos (12-3) and the No. 2 seed New England Patriots (12-3) each are officially in the playoffs and will continue to play for higher seedings.
Who’s In The Hunt?
As of right now, there are five other non-playoff teams who are in the hunt and would be in the playoffs if the regular season ended today. Holding the third seed currently is the Jacksonville Jaguars with an 11-4 record and a 99% chance to make the playoffs. Behind them is the fourth seed Pittsburgh Steelers at 9-6, who have an 89% chance of making the postseason.
Holding the three wildcard spots currently from seeds 5-7 are the Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans. The Chargers and Bills each have a 99% chance of clinching a playoff berth while Houston has a 96% chance.
Who’s On The Bubble?
There are two other teams who are still alive for a chance at making the postseason, although the odds aren’t in their favor. The 8-6 Indianapolis Colts hold the eighth seed at 8-6 and have a tough game against the San Francisco 49ers tonight. They have an 11% chance at making the playoffs with a win and a 2% chance if they lose.
The 7-8 Baltimore Ravens hurt their chances last night with a loss to the Patriots, and only have an 11% chance to make the playoffs.
Who’s Eliminated?
As Week 16 is about to wrap up, almost half of the AFC has been eliminated from the playoffs. These teams include the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and Las Vegas Raiders.
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