With the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Las Vegas Raiders tonight on Monday Night Football to conclude Week 11, the AFC Playoff Picture is starting to shape up and has given fans an idea of who will make it, who is on the outside looking in, and who probably won’t make it.
In the AFC, there’s a pair of 9-2 teams and another 8-2 team and four teams with either a 7-3 or 6-4 record. At the bottom of the standings, there are four teams with two or less wins, including the Raiders.
Before tonight’s Cowboys-Raiders game, let’s look at the AFC playoff picture:
AFC Playoff Picture After Week 11 – Who’s In & Who’s Not
Who’s in:
As of right now, the four division leaders are the Denver Broncos (9-2), New England Patriots (9-2), Indianapolis Colts (8-2), and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4.) Those four teams are the No. 1-4 seeds in order.
The three wildcard teams are the Buffalo Bills (7-3), Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), and the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4.) Those teams are the No. 5-7 seeds in order.
The Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture. pic.twitter.com/uprxc855ZA
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) November 17, 2025
Who’s Out:
Let’s start with the surprise AFC teams who if the season ended today, they would not be in the postseason. The reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (51% playoff probability according to NFL.com), at 5-5 after suffering a loss to the Denver Broncos are currently on the bubble as the No. 9 seed. The 5-5 Houston Texans (33% playoff probability) are a seed above them as the No. 8 seed.
Another surprising team that is currently not playoff bound is the Baltimore Ravens (77% probability.) They were without quarterback Lamar Jackson early on in the season for a few games, and have had recent success, sitting at 5-5 and holding the No. 10 seed.
Other teams in the AFC that are currently not playoff are: the 4-7 Miami Dolphins, 3-7 Cincinnati Bengals, 2-7 Las Vegas Raiders, 2-8 New York Jets, 2-8 Cleveland Browns, and 1-9 Tennessee Titans. Each team has 1% or less to make the playoffs and are not officially eliminated from the playoffs as of right now.
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