Week 10 was pure chaos, and we’ve already seen changes to the New Year’s Six Projections. Who replaces Oklahoma? Where do Washington and Florida State land after wins?
We take a look at that and more below.
New Year’s Six Bowl Projections
It’s important to note, these predictions differ from our College Football Bowl Projections. While our projections do just what the name says — project the bowl game appearances — our predictions are what we think the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will do when seeding the six New Year’s Bowl Games.
MORE: What are the New Year’s Six Bowls?
Rose Bowl (College Football Playoff) | #1 Georgia vs. #4 Washington
Ohio State did not look good against Rutgers. The Georgia Bulldogs did against 12th-ranked Missouri.
If that’s not enough to put the Bulldogs at the top, then I don’t know what will be. Georgia deserves the top spot, thanks to a big win against a tough Tigers team.
The Washington Huskies won a shootout over USC and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. While the defense took a vacation, it was still more impressive of a win than Florida State’s 24-7 win over Pitt.
Therefore, the Huskies claim the fourth spot in the playoff.
Sugar Bowl (College Football Playoff) | #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Michigan
If not for Marvin Harrison Jr., the Ohio State Buckeyes would be in a world of trouble. The Buckeyes continue making things interesting, which doesn’t bode well with the Michigan Wolverines still on the schedule.
If you want to argue that Michigan should be ahead of Ohio State, I won’t argue. I just think the committee won’t drop Ohio State further than 2nd even though they struggled. Michigan manhandled another inferior opponent, and it’s unlikely they move up.
Be patient Michigan fans. Your time to prove you belong at the top is coming soon enough thanks to games against Penn State and Ohio State.
MORE: What is the College Football Playoff Selection Committee?
Cotton Bowl | Texas vs Florida State
It’s time to say it: Florida State has not looked good the last couple weeks. After falling behind 7-0 against Pitt in Week 10, the Seminoles found a way to pull out a win on the road.
Simply put, the Noles need to get healthy. Without Keon Coleman or Johnny Wilson contributing, the passing attack was fine, but they won’t get away with that against playoff teams.
Texas survived against Kansas State after squandering a 27-7 lead. With that win and another Oklahoma loss, they find themselves atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma State. With just TCU, Iowa State, and Texas Tech remaining, it’s looking good that the Longhorns could get into the playoff.
Fiesta Bowl | Oregon vs Alabama
Oregon knows they have to win out to get into the playoff. Many believe they’re the best team in the Pac-12, but they still need to beat USC and Oregon State on top of getting revenge against Washington in the Pac-12 championship.
Alabama may be hitting its stride offensively after putting up big numbers against the LSU Tigers with a 42-28 win. Winning out puts them in the SEC Championship Game, and they control their own destiny to get back to the playoff.
For both teams, it comes down to their quarterbacks. Oregon’s Bo Nix continues playing well to lead the Ducks offense, while Alabama’s Jalen Milroe continues elevating the Tide’s offense with his play.
Peach Bowl | Penn State vs. Tulane
With the potential threat of a letdown game, Penn State locked in and dominated Maryland 51-15. With an Oklahoma loss, the committee should put the Nittany Lions higher in the rankings. With Michigan next week, Penn State could put their name back into the Big Ten championship conversation.
Thanks to an Air Force loss, Tulane felt good about their chances to get into these New Year’s Six bowl projections. They must have been too focused on that as they struggled mightily against a 1-win ECU team, winning 13-10.
Orange Bowl | Louisville vs Ole Miss
Louisville continues taking things one week at a time after the Pitt loss, and it shows. They beat Duke 23-0 in Week 9, and followed it up with a 34-3 win over a Virginia Tech team still hoping to play for a conference title. Just two conference games remain for the Cardinals, and they finish the year with rival Kentucky.
Ole Miss might have been looking ahead to Georgia next week, but it’s unlikely. They took some punches from Texas A&M, but a missed field goal as time expired gave the Rebels the win. They still need some help to get into the SEC Championship Game, but a win next week against Georgia would make up for any disappointment if Alabama doesn’t lose again.
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