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    New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction: Devon Dampier Enough to Upset Aztecs?

    The Aztecs have dominated the Lobos for the past decade, and Week 11 doesn’t look any different. Here’s why in our New Mexico vs. San Diego State prediction.

    The San Diego State Aztecs hold a commanding 29-15 all-time series lead over the New Mexico Lobos, and the recent trend has been even more lopsided. The Lobos haven’t beaten their conference rival since 2008, with the Aztecs riding a dominant nine-game win streak. The last two meetings? Both blowouts—31-7 in 2021 and 34-10 in 2022.

    Our New Mexico vs. San Diego State preview dives into the details, offering key betting insights to help inform your picks.

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    New Mexico vs. San Diego State Betting Preview

    All New Mexico vs. San Diego State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      San Diego State -1
    • Spread
      San Diego State -1.5
    • Moneyline
      San Diego State -122, New Mexico +102
    • Over/Under
      65.5 points
    • Game Time
      10:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Nov. 8
    • Location
      Snapdragon Stadium | San Diego, Calif.
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      62 degrees, 4 mph winds, clear
    • How To Watch
      FS1

    If there’s been one bet to make in a New Mexico game, it’s the over. The Lobos’ offense has helped surpass the total in eight of their last 10 games, including four of their last five on the road.

    MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

    If there is one bet not to make in this one, it’s New Mexico against the spread. The program is 1-4 ATS in its last five against San Diego State, and the Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests this season.

    New Mexico’s Winning Probability

    The Lobos are just two wins away from their best season since 2016 (9-4). If they are 3-6, that would put their record at 5-7 … yes, times have been tough in Albuquerque. And yet, they may not even reach that mark, as their win probability for the final two games lies below 40%.

    • at San Diego State: 49.2%
    • vs. Washington State: 17.9%
    • at Hawaii: 39.4%

    San Diego State’s Winning Probability

    The Aztecs have only missed bowl season twice since 2010, but they’re in danger of making it three times. With four games left, they need three wins to make the postseason — according to the FPM, it’s going to be a tight race.

    • vs. New Mexico: 50.8%
    • at UNLV: 14.9%
    • at Utah State: 49.6%
    • vs. Air Force: 74.6%

    Prediction for New Mexico vs. San Diego State

    Let’s not bury the lede—hammer the under.

    San Diego State’s games have rarely flirted with this total all season, with the lone exception being last week’s lopsided loss to Boise State (56-24). Spoiler alert: New Mexico is not Boise State.

    Lobos QB Devon Dampier is undeniably one of the most exciting players in college football, but this matchup is a tough one for him. New Mexico has coughed up the ball 18 times this year, compared to just seven turnovers for San Diego State.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    Dampier’s mobility has kept him upright—he’s only been sacked five times—but he hasn’t faced a defensive front like SDSU’s. The Aztecs rank fourth nationally in sacks, averaging 3.62 per game, and they’ll be relentless in their pursuit.

    Penalties could also play a major role, with both teams ranking among the most undisciplined in the country. New Mexico leads the nation with 10.0 penalties per game, and SDSU isn’t far behind at 9.25 per game (second-most).

    While San Diego State head coach Sean Lewis is known for an uptempo style, the Aztecs have been surprisingly methodical this season, averaging just 65.1 offensive plays per game—101st nationally and eight fewer than New Mexico (tied for 27th).

    The Aztecs will find success against a Lobos defense that’s been gashed for over seven yards per play and more than 40 points per game. But even with freshman QB Danny O’Neill and RB Marquez Cooper leading the charge, SDSU’s offense isn’t exactly lighting it up, averaging just 329.5 yards per game (115th).

    San Diego State should win and cover the field-goal spread, but the under remains the smartest bet on the board.

    Prediction: San Diego State 34, New Mexico 27

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