While much of Florida’s attention might be locked on the Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators during the noon Saturday slate in Week 11, another in-state matchup with major conference implications might be flying under the radar. The South Florida Bulls take on the Navy Midshipmen in a pivotal clash.
Who comes out on top? Our Navy vs. USF prediction dives into all the critical details, from the latest betting lines to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Navy vs. USF Betting Preview
All Navy vs. USF odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
USF -2.5 - Spread
Navy -3 - Moneyline
Navy -162, USF +136 - Over/Under
57 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Raymond James Stadium | Tampa, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
87 degrees, mostly cloudy with some showers, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Saturday marks the fifth time that Navy and USF have gone into battle, and they’ve been back and forth to split the series 2-2. In their last encounter, the Bulls took down the Midshipmen by two touchdowns, but much has changed for the two teams in the 13 months since. As such, Navy heads into the game favored despite their current form and being on the road.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
In a potentially ominous sign of the game to come, USF hasn’t won as an underdog this fall, going 0-4 when their opponent is favored. Within those games is a clash with a Memphis Tigers team that Navy already beat this year. That, of course, means not a lot, but there might be something in the Midshipmen being 5-1 (4-2 ATS) when favored in 2024.
Navy’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Navy has a 46.2% chance of beating the Bulls on Saturday afternoon. It’s worth noting that the Midshipmen have overcome our metric once this season, beating the Memphis Tigers despite being an underdog.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Navy in the 2024 college football season:
- at USF: 46.2%
- vs. Tulane: 33.6%
- at East Carolina: 67.7%
- vs. Army (neutral venue): 33.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Midshipmen would end the year with a 7-5 record. While that’s an improvement in the second season under Brian Newberry, it would likely be considered a disappointment by the program after being 6-0 at the halfway point of the season.
USF Winning Probability
Conversely, USF has a 53.8% chance of beating Navy on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Bulls this year, making them a bigger favorite ahead of the 23-point win over the Florida Atlantic Owls than any oddsmaker.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for USF in the 2024 college football season:
- vs. Navy: 53.8%
- at Charlotte: 66.4%
- vs. Tulsa: 80.2%
- at Rice: 67.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Bulls would end the year with an 8-4 record, including a 6-2 AAC campaign. It would be a two-win uptick from last fall, a testament to the impact of head coach Alex Golesh on the program. USF hasn’t made successive bowl games since 2018-2019.
Prediction for Navy vs. USF
Saturday’s matchup is as pivotal for Navy as it is for any team in the country. While that might sound like an exaggeration, the stakes couldn’t be higher—another loss would officially sink any remaining hope of an AAC Championship Game appearance, a dream that felt like destiny just one week ago.
Last Saturday’s shocking defeat to the Rice Owls has turned every remaining game into a must-win for Newberry’s Midshipmen.
On the other hand, USF’s path to the AAC Championship Game is effectively blocked after losses to Tulane and Memphis. But Golesh’s Bulls aren’t just rolling over.
They’ll be out to prove they can compete with the conference’s top teams while building momentum toward bowl eligibility for the 2024 season. USF enters as the form team, but can they turn that into a statement win?
Which team has the edge, and where will the critical battles unfold?
Golesh has built a reputation for high-powered offenses, carrying his identity from Tennessee to Tampa. Last year, his Bulls ranked 33rd in the nation offensively, but the results haven’t been quite as sweet in 2024.
Averaging just 27.5 points per game, they’ve faced some tough defenses while star quarterback Byrum Brown has battled injuries.
Brown practiced all week, but if he can’t go, backup Bryce Archie has proven capable in recent games. USF’s offense also boasts a three-headed rushing attack with Nay’Quan Wright, Kelley Joiner Jr., and Taron Keith. When Brown is healthy, his dual-threat ability further energizes the ground game.
However, their recent offensive success has come against lackluster defenses.
That’s not a label you can stick on Navy’s defense. Despite the Rice loss and being dismantled by Notre Dame earlier in the season, the Midshipmen field one of the AAC’s best defensive units. Colin Ramos and Justin Reed wreak havoc in opposing backfields, while Rayuan Lane and Dashaun Peele anchor the secondary with hard-hitting tackles and the ability to capitalize on mistakes.
USF has shown growth defensively, too. Mac Harris and Decarius Hawthorne headline a unit with eight players tallying four or more tackles for loss, making the Bulls third in TFLs per game. They’ll need every bit of that defensive firepower to slow Navy’s option offense, led by Blake Horvath, Alex Tecza, and Eli Heidenreich.
Whether they can keep that trio in check will likely decide the game.
Prediction: Navy 33, USF 27
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