The first leg of the annual triangular rivalry known as the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy sees the Navy Midshipmen make their way to Colorado to take on the Air Force Falcons. While recent history has favored the home team, Navy is in formidable form as they look to extend their current winning run.
Here are the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our Navy vs. Air Force prediction ahead of the October triple-option onslaught.
Navy vs. Air Force Betting and DFS Preview
All Navy vs. Air Force odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Navy -7 - Spread
Navy -10 - Moneyline
Navy -395, Air Force +310 - Over/Under
35.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
Falcon Stadium | USAF Academy, CO - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, 8 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
CBS
Unsurprisingly for two teams who are polar opposite trajectories right now, Navy started the week as a favorite, and DraftKings Sportsbook has moved the line out even further as the game nears. The Midshipmen are currently a 10-point favorite according to the oddsmaker, and it could grow before the midday kickoff on Saturday.
While the spread hasn’t moved much since opening, the total has dropped by three points, likely because of Air Force’s fourth-worst yards (243.0) and points (12.5) per game marks. Yet, that’s not the only reason.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
It’s no secret that matchups between service academies usually end with low scores. Since 2003, the unders in armed forces games sit at an impressive 50-11-3. Oddsmakers are well aware of this trend, adjusting totals accordingly; last year’s Army-Navy clash opened with a mere 28-point total.
There are also some strong trends when it comes to the spread. Navy is 3-1 ATS this year, while Air Force is 0-4. Additionally, the Midshipmen are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road, making their -10 look even sweeter.
Navy’s Winning Probability
Navy is 4-0 this season, and the CFN FPM believes the program will win Saturday (70.3% win probability), improving to 5-0 for the fifth time since 1960 (1960, 1978, 1979, 2004, 2017). Nevertheless, the Midshipmen’s first loss could be right around the corner, as they’ll welcome Notre Dame on Oct. 26.
Here are the Midshipmen’s win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Charlotte: 76.6%
- vs. Notre Dame: 20.1%
- at Rice: 73.4%
- at USF: 50.6%
- vs. Tulane: 48.8%
- at East Carolina: 79.3%
- vs. Army: 52.8%
Air Force’s Winning Probability
Sorry, Falcons fans; it appears things may get worse before getting better. Not only do they own a 29.7% win probability against Navy, but they aren’t favored in any of their remaining seven contests.
Here are the Falcons’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at New Mexico: 47.2%
- vs. Colorado State: 46.2%
- at Army: 19.8%
- vs. Fresno State: 26.6%
- vs. Oregon State: 25.1%
- at Nevada: 49.2%
- at San Diego State: 42.6%
Prediction Navy vs. Air Force
Air Force may be 34-22 all-time against Navy, but the Midshipmen will add to the win column in Week 6. They haven’t scored less than 38 points in a game this year, including 56 in the College Football Playoff-altering upset over Group of Five favorite Memphis.
Across the field, the Falcons haven’t scored more than 21, which came back in a Week 1 win over FCS-level Merrimack. Suffice it to say, these are two programs on opposite sides of the service academy spectrum.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With Blake Horvath under center, Navy will continue to rack up points on a depleted Air Force defense. And with LB Colin Ramos and DB Rayuan Lane III patrolling the second and third levels, the Falcons will remain grounded on Saturday. Take Navy straight up and ATS, as well as the over, which the Midshipmen could cover on their own.
Prediction: Navy 31, Air Force 10
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