The Navy Midshipmen once believed they had an outside shot at the College Football Playoff. But that hope took a hit when a team known for ball security—having just two turnovers all year—surrendered the ball six times in a 51-14 blowout loss to Notre Dame.
Not all is lost for the Midshipmen, though. They’re still undefeated in AAC play and remain in the running for a conference title. Next up are the Rice Owls. See if we think Navy can bounce back, win, and cover in this Navy vs. Rice prediction.
Navy vs. Rice Betting Preview
All Navy vs. Rice odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Navy -8 - Spread
Navy -11 - Moneyline
Navy -425, Rice +330 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 4 p.m. ET - Location
Rice Stadium | Houston, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
81 degrees, cloudy, 13 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
Both Rice and Navy had interesting weeks last week. The Midshipmen were blown out against Notre Dame, and Rice fired Mike Bloomgren on Sunday after a disappointing start to the year.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
This line has had some interesting movement, down from 12.5 to start the week to its current position at Navy -11. The total is at 51 points, implying a final score close to 31-20 in favor of the Midshipmen.
Navy’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit lower on the Midshipmen, and the Vegas line is moving in that direction. Navy is a slightly smaller favorite at eight points, a win probability of 73.8% per the metric. The metric has a wide range of outcomes for the Midshipmen, as they’ll have a winning probability between 37% and 75% in every remaining game.
- at Rice: 73.8
- at USF: 49.6%
- vs. Tulane: 39.4%
- at ECU: 74.2%
- vs. Army: 37.4%
Rice’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Rice a 26.2% chance to win and has the Owls as heavy underdogs in three of their remaining four games. While bowl eligibility is extremely unlikely, the Owls are likely looking for some positive momentum heading into the offseason.
- vs. Navy: 26.2%
- at Memphis: 12.6%
- at UAB: 54.3%
- vs. USF: 32.3%
Prediction for Navy vs. Rice
As strange as it might sound, I don’t think Navy was all that overmatched against Notre Dame, despite the score. The Midshipmen offense, in particular, looked solid whenever they held onto the ball.
Navy averaged 5.2 yards per carry, over six yards per pass, and only went for a field goal or punted on three drives. The main issue? Ball security—Navy fumbled seven times and lost five of them.
I’m not saying a bounce here or there would’ve turned it into a close game, but I do see it as an outlier rather than a measure of Navy’s true ability. Usually, when a team that averages a turnover every three games has six in one, we chalk that up to an exception, not the rule.
That perspective feels right here.
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The line movement on this game feels off to me. I grabbed Navy -12.5 early as one of my top picks for the week, yet the line has shifted in the opposite direction.
Rice just fired its coach, and while the “coaching bump” is always possible, it’s hard to imagine one of the country’s lowest-scoring, least-effective red-zone offenses magically improving post-firing.
Navy will return to its strengths—controlling the clock and tempo, lulling defenses to sleep before hitting big throws over the top when they creep too close to the line.
I’m calling a Navy blowout to get their season back on track. Expect the Midshipmen to be sharp with their possessions, while the Owls struggle to convert on their scoring chances.
Rice may pull something together late to push this over the total, but despite the odd line movement, I’m sticking with Navy.
Prediction: Navy 38, Rice 14
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