Without QB Blake Horvath, the Navy Midshipmen stumbled to a 35-0 loss against the Tulane Green Wave. On the other hand, the East Carolina Pirates are surging into the season finale on a four-game win streak. Can the Midshipmen secure their 10th win in 13 games against ECU in Week 14?
Our Navy vs. East Carolina prediction dives into this compelling matchup, offering crucial betting insights to guide your picks.
Navy vs. East Carolina Betting Preview
All Navy vs. East Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Navy -2 - Spread
East Carolina -2.5 - Moneyline
East Carolina -130, Navy +110 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Friday, Nov. 29 - Location
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium | Greenville, N.C. - Predicted Weather at Kick
51 degrees, 9 mph winds, mostly sunny - How To Watch
ESPN
Although the Midshipmen are only 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games, they are on an 8-0 ATS run against ECU. The Pirates won’t go down without a fight, though, owning a 4-1 ATS record in their past five outings.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As far as the total, the over looks like the play, with it cashing in seven of Navy’s last 10 and five of ECU’s last six. Yet, the under has hit in four of the five previous Midshipmen-Pirates matchups.
Navy’s Winning Probability
The Midshipmen are out of the conference race, but the season isn’t over. In just his second season, head coach Brian Newberry has Navy en route to their first bowl game since 2019.
- at East Carolina: 52.8%
- vs. Army: 34.3%
East Carolina’s Winning Probability
Since 2014, the Pirates have only gone bowling once — they are about to make it twice. What makes the 2024 campaign all the more impressive is the fact that head coach Mike Houston was fired after a 3-4 start. Longtime DC/LBs coach Blake Harrell stepped into the interim role, but after the recent 4-0 run, ECU brass has decided to promote him to full-time head coach.
- vs. Navy: 47.2%
Prediction for Navy vs. East Carolina
Horvath is easily one of the toughest players in the country, but the injuries caught up with him last week, as back spasms forced him out of the game. Without their star on the field, the Midshipmen’s offense completely stalled, putting up zero points and just 113 total yards.
If Horvath is sidelined again, this game should be all East Carolina. That said, let’s assume Horvath toughs it out and gives it a go.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Meanwhile, the Pirates are certainly missing lockdown CB Shavon Revel Jr., which has caused their defense to tumble to 109th in EPA per dropback and 71st in net points per drive. Against most teams, that’s a problem—but not so much against a service academy, where the ground game reigns supreme.
Fortunately for ECU, stopping the run is their forte. The Pirates rank 12th in defensive success rate against the run and should force the Midshipmen into plenty of tough third and fourth-down situations, where Navy ranks just 89th in success rate.
On the other side of the ball, QB Katin Houser has been a major upgrade over Jake Garcia, and with RB Rahjai Harris in the backfield, they should keep the chains moving.
Expect the Pirates to extend their win streak and for the under to cash once again.
Prediction: East Carolina 27, Navy 21
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