The quest for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy kicks off with the Navy Midshipmen traveling to Colorado to face the Air Force Falcons. Although the Falcons have had the upper hand in recent matchups, Navy enters on a hot streak and is aiming to keep their momentum rolling.
Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds, spread analysis, and our Navy vs. Air Force prediction as these teams gear up for an October clash of triple-option offenses.
Navy vs. Air Force Betting Preview
All Navy vs. Air Force odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Navy -7 - Spread
Navy -10 - Moneyline
Navy -380, Air Force +300 - Over/Under
37 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
Falcon Stadium | USAF Academy, CO - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, 8 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
CBS
Unsurprisingly for two teams who are polar opposite trajectories right now, Navy started the week as a favorite, and DraftKings Sportsbook has moved the line out even further as the game nears. The Midshipmen carry a 10-point favorite according to the oddsmaker, having grown from a touchdown at the midweek point all the way up to a full two-possession game.
While the spread hasn’t moved much since opening, the total has dropped by three points, likely because of Air Force’s fourth-worst yards (243.0) and points (12.5) per game marks. Yet, that’s not the only reason.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
It’s no secret that games between service academies tend to be defensive grinds. Since 2003, the under has hit in these matchups a staggering 50-11-3. Oddsmakers are onto it, too—last year’s Army-Navy showdown kicked off with a paltry 28-point total.
The spread tells its own story, though. Navy is 3-1 ATS this season, while Air Force has struggled at 0-4. Plus, the Midshipmen are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, making that -10 look even more tempting.
Navy’s Winning Probability
Navy is 4-0 this season, and the CFN FPM believes the program will win Saturday (70.3% win probability), improving to 5-0 for the fifth time since 1960 (1960, 1978, 1979, 2004, 2017). Nevertheless, the Midshipmen’s first loss could be right around the corner, as they’ll welcome Notre Dame on Oct. 26.
Here are the Midshipmen’s win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Charlotte: 76.6%
- vs. Notre Dame: 20.1%
- at Rice: 73.4%
- at USF: 50.6%
- vs. Tulane: 48.8%
- at East Carolina: 79.3%
- vs. Army: 52.8%
Air Force’s Winning Probability
I’m sorry, Falcons fans. It appears things may get worse before getting better. Not only do they own a 29.7% win probability against Navy, but they aren’t favored in any of their remaining seven contests.
Here are the Falcons’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at New Mexico: 47.2%
- vs. Colorado State: 46.2%
- at Army: 19.8%
- vs. Fresno State: 26.6%
- vs. Oregon State: 25.1%
- at Nevada: 49.2%
- at San Diego State: 42.6%
Prediction Navy vs. Air Force
Air Force might hold a 34-22 edge in the all-time series, but Navy’s set to close the gap in Week 6. The Midshipmen haven’t scored fewer than 38 points in a game all season, including a massive 56-point outburst in their College Football Playoff-shaking upset over Group of Five powerhouse Memphis.
Meanwhile, the Falcons haven’t managed more than 21 points since their Week 1 win over FCS opponent Merrimack. In short, these two teams are trending in completely opposite directions within the service academy ranks.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With Blake Horvath leading the charge, Navy should continue to pile up points against a thin Air Force defense. And with LB Colin Ramos and DB Rayuan Lane III locking down the second and third levels, the Falcons’ offense will struggle to get off the ground.
Back Navy straight up and ATS, and don’t be surprised if they hit the over all by themselves.
Prediction: Navy 31, Air Force 10
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