The Boise State Broncos are 10-3 all-time and have won eight straight against the UNLV Rebels, including a 29-24 victory in Week 9. They meet once again in the Mountain West Championship game, a rematch of last year’s title match.
Who will come out on top? Our Mountain West Championship prediction breaks down everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they close out the 2024 college football regular season.
Mountain West Championship Betting Preview
All Mountain West Championship odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -1 - Spread
Boise State -4 - Moneyline
Boise State -180, UNLV +150 - Over/Under
58.5 points - Game Time
9:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Dec. 6 - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho - Predicted Weather at Kick
38 degrees, 2 mph winds, mostly cloudy - How To Watch
Fox
Recent trends point to one side of the total here: the under. It has cashed in four of UNLV’s last six games and five of Boise State’s last seven, including their midseason matchup.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The against-the-spread numbers are even more interesting. The Rebels are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as underdogs, but they are only 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings with the Broncos. Yet, Boise State has struggled in December, going 1-6 ATS in its previous seven duels in the month.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The last time UNLV enjoyed back-to-back winning seasons was in 1983-84 — head coach Barry Odom has done so in his first two years at the helm. After charging to a 9-5 record last year, the Rebels came right back out swinging, ending the regular season 10-2, with their only losses coming against the Syracuse Orange and, of course, the Broncos.
- at Boise State: 49.2%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Since taking over for Andy Avalos last season, Spencer Danielson has powered Boise State to a 14-2 record. The lone loss came by three points to the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks early in the year. The Broncos are currently No. 11 in the College Football Playoff Rankings but should move up several spots after Week 14’s results.
- vs. UNLV: 50.8%
Prediction for Mountain West Championship
While the Broncos have fed Heisman-hopeful RB Ashton Jeanty all year, they are far from a one-trick offense. Sophomore QB Maddux Madsen has kept the chains moving through the air and ground, completing 61.7% of passes for 2,556 yards, 21 TDs, and just three INTs while rushing for another 215 yards and four scores.
They’ll need him to maintain his form against the Rebels, who are top-50 in scoring (22.0 ppg, tied 37th) and total defense (349.2 ypg, 49th). Boise State’s gameplan was clear in the first matchup, as Madsen rarely pushed the ball downfield and got it out quickly.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The reason? UNLV’s vaunted pass rush (3.0 sacks per game, 13th) and ability to force turnovers (22, tied 16th).
I expect a similar scheme in the title match, with some more play-action and crossing patterns to combat UNLV’s man coverage, which they deployed at a nearly 10% higher clip than their season average vs. the Broncos.
Hajj-Malik Williams, Jaiden Thomas, and Ricky White III will get theirs offensively, especially against a Boise State defense that has struggled to wrap up this season. However, the front-four pressure got to Williams for six sacks last go-round.
It wasn’t because UNLV’s OL is weak, either, as the coverage forced HMW to hold onto the ball longer than usual, and the Broncos’ defensive line is simply that good (3.33 sacks per game, tied third).
The numbers lean toward another Boise State win over UNLV, though it promises to be a tough battle. Back the Broncos to secure the victory and cover in a close, semi-low-scoring contest that stays under the projected total.
Prediction: Boise State 28, UNLV 24
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