Mountain West Championship Game Prediction: UNLV vs. Boise State Odds, Spread, DFS Picks, and More

Will UNLV or Boise State win the 2023 Mountain West title? Step this way for the latest odds, DFS picks, and a Mountain West Championship Game prediction.

A perennial contender in the Mountain West, the Boise State Broncos return to the championship game for the second successive season where they’ll face a UNLV Rebels program playing in their first title game after an incredible first year under head coach Barry Odom.

Can the Rebels roll over the Broncos or will Boise State become the first program in modern Mountain West history to win four titles? Ahead of the game, we’ve got the latest college football betting odds, DFS picks, and a Mountain West Championship Game prediction.

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Mountain West Championship Game Betting and DFS Preview

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2023. Want to take advantage of the Mountain West Championship Game odds? Visit the College Football Network live college football odds page to place bets in your state.

  • Spread
    Boise State -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Boise State -130, UNLV +110
  • Over/Under
    58.5 points
  • Game time
    3 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
  • Predicted Weather at Kick
    59 degrees, 6 mph winds, cloudy
  • How to Watch
    Fox, FuboTV

Looking to back Boise State in the home of American betting? Will you risk it all on the Rebels? If you’re going to take advantage of the Mountain West Championship Game odds, consider some of the following factors before you part with your hard-earned cash.

Historical precedent is difficult to factor into the equation in the Mountain West Championship Game, as this UNLV team under coach Odom defies expectations and treads unfamiliar ground. The Rebels have lost their last six against the Broncos dating back to 1977, and the last meeting between the two teams in 2019 ended with a convincing 38-13 Boise State win.

This isn’t your grandpa’s Rebels though, and despite losing to San Jose State — which caused the most peculiar tie-breaker of any title game this year — there’s plenty of reason to believe that UNLV has a shot at something no one expected this year. Our Mountain West Championship Game prediction details the “why” later on.

MORE: How Did a Computer Decide the MWC Championship Participants?

With such a small spread, taking the team you think will win should also involve taking them to cover. Boise State has covered their last three games, while UNLV has covered every game in which they’ve been the underdog. Finally, it should be a high-scoring game, with eight of the Broncos games and seven UNLV games hitting the over this year.

Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays

UNLV Depth Chart | Boise State Depth Chart

  • QB Jayden Maiava, UNLV
  • QB Taylen Green, Boise State 
  • QB Maddux Madsen, Boise State 
  • RB Vincent Davis, UNLV
  • RB Jai’Den Thomas, UNLV
  • RB Donavyn Lester, UNLV
  • RB Courtney Reese, UNLV
  • RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State 
  • RB George Holani, Boise State
  • RB Jambres Dubar, Boise State
  • WR Ricky White, UNLV
  • WR Jacob De Jesus, UNLV
  • WR Senika McKie, UNLV
  • WR Prince Strachan, Boise State 
  • WR Billy Bowens, Boise State 
  • WR Matt Lauter, Boise State 
  • TE Kaleo Ballungay, UNLV 
  • TE Riley Smith, Boise State 

There are eight college football games on the Saturday of Championship Game weekend to compile your DFS team from. If you’re new to DFS, Fanduel Superflex contests require you to select a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and a “Superflex” that can be any of the above or a tight end.

While these two teams boast talented dual-threat quarterbacks, your Mountain West Championship picks will likely bypass the position and focus firmly on the two running back rooms. Two of the best running games the conference has to offer will be on show in Las Vegas, with Ashton Jeanty and Jai’Den Thomas being two players you’d love to have in your DFS starting lineup.

MORE: Mountain West QB Rankings

No other player in the Mountain West has scored as many fantasy points as Jeanty in the 2023 college football season. A threat with the ball in his hands or as a receiver out the backfield, the Boise State running back is as at home breaking contact up the gut as he is using his speed off the tackle. Meanwhile, UNLV’s Thomas is a touchdown machine for the Rebs.

With Boise State’s Eric McAlister in the transfer portal, the Broncos don’t have a top-tier fantasy pass-catching option but UNLV sure does. Ricky White has had a seemingly effortless 1,000+ yard season, breaking the barrier for the first time in his career. He’s the go-to pass catcher for this offense, leading the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns ahead of Week 14.

Prediction for the Mountain West Championship Game

Okay, so we’ve furnished you with the Mountain West Championship Game odds and some DFS picks. Now, it’s time to close this thing out with our prediction. Can Boise State live up to their billing as a favorite and land their first Mountain West title since 2020, or will the Rebels roll to their first-ever conference crown after a simply sensational 2023 college football season?

After dropping to 3-2 in conference play, Boise State parted ways with head coach Andy Avalos, the timing of which was bizarre given the team was still in contention for the Mountain West title game. It clearly didn’t impact the players negatively as the Broncos galloped through their final matchups to set up a showdown with a UNLV team they avoided in the regular season.

MORE: 2023 CFB Bowl Projections

The Broncos’ chances of victory very much start and end with the running back duo of Holani and Jeanty. The latter has been one of the most unstoppable forces in all college football, earning attention every time he’s been involved in a nationally televised game. Meanwhile, Holani is equally difficult to contain when he’s playing at full health, which hasn’t always been the case.

Between a packed running back room and the connection between redshirt freshman quarterback Jayden Maiava and WR White, UNLV has the offensive firepower to go toe-to-toe in a fistfight against the Broncos. The Rebels have the number one scoring offense in the Mountain West, although there’s just a 3.5-point differential between the two teams contesting the title game.

Both teams have relatively decent run defenses, with Boise State ranking second in the conference with 3.94 yards per carry allowed. UNLV isn’t far behind them with 4.15 yards per carry while the Rebels have allowed one fewer touchdown than their conference foe through the 2023 college campaign. They’ll need to be at the top of their game to contain the Boise State RB duo.

The game could be won or lost on the strength of the passing game, and here UNLV has the advantage. Boise State has allowed the most passing yards in the Mountain West this year while failing to generate double-digit interceptions. UNLV has done a good job of winning the turnover battle this year, and in a close game that could prove pivotal, as could the accuracy of kicker Jose Pizano.

Prediction: UNLV 35, Boise State 32

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