The Boise State Broncos hold a 10-3 all-time record against the UNLV Rebels and have dominated the series with eight straight wins, including a tight 29-24 victory in Week 9. Now, they face off again in the Mountain West Championship—a rematch of last year’s title game.
Who takes the crown this time? Our Mountain West Championship prediction covers it all—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they wrap up the 2024 college football regular season.
Mountain West Championship Betting Preview
All Mountain West Championship odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -1 - Spread
Boise State -4.5 - Moneyline
Boise State -192, UNLV +160 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
9:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Dec. 6 - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho - Predicted Weather at Kick
38 degrees, 2 mph winds, mostly cloudy - How To Watch
Fox
Recent trends point to one side of the total here: the under. It has cashed in four of UNLV’s last six games and five of Boise State’s last seven, including their midseason matchup.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The against-the-spread numbers are even more interesting. The Rebels are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as underdogs, but they are only 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings with the Broncos. Yet, Boise State has struggled in December, going 1-6 ATS in its previous seven duels in the month.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The last time UNLV enjoyed back-to-back winning seasons was in 1983-84 — head coach Barry Odom has done so in his first two years at the helm. After charging to a 9-5 record last year, the Rebels came right back out swinging, ending the regular season 10-2, with their only losses coming against the Syracuse Orange and, of course, the Broncos.
- at Boise State: 49.2%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Since taking over for Andy Avalos last season, Spencer Danielson has powered Boise State to a 14-2 record. The lone loss came by three points to the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks early in the year. The Broncos are currently No. 11 in the College Football Playoff Rankings but should move up several spots after Week 14’s results.
- vs. UNLV: 50.8%
Prediction for Mountain West Championship
While the Broncos have leaned heavily on Heisman-hopeful RB Ashton Jeanty this season, their offense is far from one-dimensional. Sophomore QB Maddux Madsen has been a steady force, completing 61.7% of his passes for 2,556 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just three interceptions, while adding 215 rushing yards and four scores on the ground.
Madsen will need to stay sharp against the Rebels, who boast a top-50 scoring defense (22.0 points per game, tied 37th) and total defense (349.2 yards per game, 49th). Boise State’s strategy in their first matchup was clear—Madsen played it safe, rarely testing the deep ball and getting the ball out quickly.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The reason? UNLV’s ferocious pass rush (3.0 sacks per game, 13th nationally) and knack for creating turnovers (22 forced, tied 16th).
Expect a similar approach in the championship, with Boise State incorporating more play-action and crossing routes to counter UNLV’s aggressive man coverage, which they used nearly 10% more frequently against the Broncos in their first meeting.
Offensively, Hajj-Malik Williams, Jaiden Thomas, and Ricky White III will have their moments for the Rebels, especially against a Boise State defense that has struggled with tackling at times. However, the Broncos’ defensive front proved disruptive in the first matchup, sacking Williams six times.
This wasn’t due to poor protection from UNLV’s offensive line but rather strong coverage forcing Williams to hold onto the ball and Boise State’s elite pass rush (3.33 sacks per game, tied third) capitalizing on those opportunities.
The metrics point toward another Boise State win, though it won’t come easily. Back the Broncos to pull off a hard-fought victory and cover the spread in a close, semi-low-scoring game that stays under the projected total.
Prediction: Boise State 28, UNLV 24
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