The Missouri Tigers head to College Station to face the Texas A&M Aggies in one of the most intriguing matchups of Week 6’s early slate. Despite their top-10 ranking, the Tigers aren’t the clear favorites you’d expect.
In reality, they’re entering the game as slight underdogs.
Does our Football Playoff Meter agree? Find out how we feel about the odds, spread, and more in our Missouri vs. Texas A&M prediction.
Missouri vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -5 - Spread
Texas A&M -2.5 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -142, Missouri +120 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, noon ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
83 degrees, sunny, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
In a surprising twist, Texas A&M opened as a two-point favorite over the higher-ranked Tigers, and the line has continued to move away from Eli Drinkwitz’s squad throughout the week.
Clearly, there’s some serious confidence in Texas A&M’s home-field edge, especially since the CFN FPM spread actually has Missouri favored by five.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
If the odds keep trending toward the Aggies, it’ll mark the first time Missouri enters a game as an underdog this season. They’re currently 2-2 against the spread after squeaking by Boston College and Vanderbilt in games they were supposed to win comfortably.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M has managed to cover just once in five games—and that was against a lackluster Florida team.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit kinder to the Tigers than the Vegas line, making the Tigers five-point favorites. That translates to a 64.6% win probability.
That represents the Tigers’ second-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule. The Tigers’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Texas A&M: 64.6%
- at UMass: 99.0%
- vs. Auburn: 91.7%
- at Alabama: 25.1%
- vs. Oklahoma: 79.9%
- at South Carolina: 74.6%
- at Mississippi State: 92.8%
- vs. Arkansas: 88.1%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas A&M has a 35.4% chance to win Saturday, meaning a win would have a significant effect on its expected win total for the season. The Aggies’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Missouri: 35.4%
- at Mississippi State: 79.9%
- at LSU: 35.9%
- at South Carolina: 50.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 92.9%
- at Auburn: 61.9%
- vs. Texas: 20.4%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Before the line came out, I saw this as a potential upset for the Aggies, and the Vegas odds seem to back that up.
Missouri hasn’t exactly wowed anyone, even with a soft schedule, and now they’re hitting the road for the first time in 2024. Texas A&M’s home-field edge is real, but can the Aggies put together a strong enough performance to topple the Tigers?
Quarterback Conner Weigman’s status is still up in the air, but even if he’s cleared, I expect the Aggies to roll with Marcel Reed. Reed’s mobility has been a game-changer this year, and the redshirt freshman has done an excellent job taking care of the football.
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On the other side, Missouri’s run game is clicking, but their vaunted receiving corps hasn’t quite lived up to the preseason hype.
When Vegas makes an unranked conference team the favorite against a top-10 squad, there’s usually a good reason—and I’m buying it. The Aggies’ run game paired with a dual-threat quarterback should give the Tigers plenty of headaches. I’m backing Texas A&M in what should be a nail-biter, with a back-and-forth finish that could send the score over the total.
Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Missouri 24
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