While the Missouri Tigers hold a higher ranking, the South Carolina Gamecocks enter this matchup riding a wave of momentum and are favored by nearly two touchdowns. However, South Carolina hasn’t beaten Missouri since 2018.
Can the Gamecocks keep their streak alive and notch another crucial win as they position themselves for a potential dark-horse College Football Playoff run? Check out our Missouri vs. South Carolina prediction to see how we’re calling it.
Missouri vs. South Carolina Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. South Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
South Carolina -2 - Spread
South Carolina -11 - Moneyline
South Carolina -410, Missouri +320 - Over/Under
42.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 4:15 p.m. ET - Location
Williams-Brice Stadium | Columbia, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
This line is indicative of both Missouri’s struggles on the road this season and the quarterback situation, as Eli Drinkwitz announced early Monday that Drew Pyne would once again start behind center.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 41.5 points and a spread of 14, Vegas has little faith in Missouri’s offense, implying a final score close to 27-14 in favor of South Carolina.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter isn’t quite as low on Missouri this weekend as Vegas, as the metric trusts the Tigers’ ability to win close games this year. They’ll have a 47.2% chance to win, per the metric. This represents their hardest remaining game, as they’ll finish an extremely easy SEC slate with two struggling teams.
- at South Carolina: 47.2%
- at Mississippi State: 87.4%
- vs. Arkansas: 67.7%
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
Conversely, South Carolina has a 52.8% chance of beating Missouri at home. FPM has undervalued the Gamecocks all year, but if they win Saturday, they’ll be lurking near the top 15 with a rivalry game at Clemson looming.
- vs. Missouri: 47.2%
- vs. Wofford: 99.9%
- at Clemson: 34.9%
Prediction for Missouri vs. South Carolina
Let me start by saying that our FPM is remarkably accurate, but it’s been off the mark with South Carolina this season. I’ve successfully gone against it when the system underestimated the Gamecocks as underdogs to Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.
Why? This team has evolved. Early in the season, Shane Beamer had a talented roster but wasn’t coaching with the confidence of a team built to dictate the game.
That’s no longer the case. The tricks, fakes, and surprises are gone. South Carolina has found its identity—a physical, straightforward approach on both sides of the ball, built around a “stop us if you can” mentality.
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South Carolina’s defense is elite—top five nationally—and their defensive line might just be the best in college football. This team is loaded with talent, and that spells trouble for a Missouri squad that has thrived on one of the SEC’s softest schedules.
Missouri has faced only two SP+ top-25 teams, despite the SEC boasting over half its programs in that category. Against teams outside the top 25, Missouri is 7-0, including dominant wins over three non-Power Four opponents by a combined 134-3.
But outside of those blowouts, Missouri hasn’t been convincing. Their four wins over average or below-average Power Four teams came by an average of just five points. All those opponents had offenses ranked outside the top 75, and all the games were at home. The Tigers have left Faurot Field only three times all season.
When they’ve faced quality opponents, it hasn’t been pretty—a combined 75-10 loss in those two games. Right now, they’re a paper tiger, boosted by a soft schedule and some good fortune.
South Carolina will be the third legitimate team Missouri faces on the road, and I don’t see this one ending differently.
There is a caveat: history. Missouri has dominated this matchup under Eli Drinkwitz, winning five straight, including a blowout last year. The Gamecocks have scored more than 14 points only once in that span.
But this year feels different. South Carolina has taken control in the trenches, and their power-rushing attack, paired with LaNorris Sellers’ emergence, gives them an edge Missouri hasn’t seen from the Gamecocks in years.
There’s also the question of Brady Cook’s health. If he plays, he won’t be 100%, and if he doesn’t, Missouri faces an even steeper climb.
South Carolina has hit its stride offensively, and I trust the team that’s proven itself in big moments over one that’s stumbled. Beamer wants this one badly, and if the Gamecocks get ahead, don’t expect them to ease up.
Take the hot team with the points and lean toward the over—South Carolina could run away with this late.
Gamecocks in a blowout.
Prediction: South Carolina 37, Missouri 13
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