What started as a season full of promise has fallen apart for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, while the Minnesota Golden Gophers have fought back from a tough beginning, piecing together four straight conference wins.
Can the Golden Gophers keep their momentum rolling, or will the Scarlet Knights find a way to rebound? Let’s dive into our Minnesota vs. Rutgers prediction.
Minnesota vs. Rutgers Betting Preview
All Minnesota vs. Rutgers odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Minnesota -4.5 - Spread
Minnesota -6 - Moneyline
Minnesota -218, Rutgers +180 - Over/Under
46 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, Noon ET - Location
SHI Stadium | Piscataway, NJ - Predicted Weather at Kick
56 degrees, sunny, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
These teams are trending in opposite directions as Rutgers has dropped four straight, while Minnesota is unbeaten in its last four. That’s reflected in a spread that gives the Golden Gophers a distinct advantage.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a spread of six points and a total of just 46.5 points, Vegas expects a low-scoring game. The implied final score is close to 26-20 in favor of the Golden Gophers.
Minnesota’s Winning Probability
When we ran the Big Ten Championship scenarios, Minnesota won the Big Ten in a single sim out of 10,000. It’s highly unlikely the Golden Gophers make the championship game, but it’s a testament to their recent play. Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Golden Gophers have a 63.1% chance to win Saturday before key games against Penn State and Wisconsin.
- at Rutgers: 63.1%
- vs. Penn State: 27%
- at Wisconsin: 50%
Rutgers’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Rutgers has a 36.9%% chance of beating Minnesota at home, which translates to a spread of about 4.5 points. Needing two wins for bowl eligibility, all four of the Scarlet Knights’ final four games have implied spreads of less than five points.
- vs. Minnesota: 36.9%
- at Maryland: 52.5%
- vs. Illinois: 38%
- at Michigan State: 45.7%
Prediction for Minnesota vs. Rutgers
Life in the revamped Big Ten is all about momentum for the middle-tier teams. The Golden Gophers looked like they were sinking fast until a visit from a struggling USC Trojans squad breathed new life into their season.
Even so, I’m not sold on the idea that Minnesota is significantly better now than they were during their rough two-game stretch in late September.
Their game plan isn’t groundbreaking. They’re leaning heavily on a reliable defense, a steady running game, and just enough from the passing attack to keep defenses honest.
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Max Brosmer has been the definition of steady—exactly what this system needs at quarterback. But Minnesota’s knack for surviving one-score games isn’t sustainable. That kind of luck runs out eventually.
On the flip side, Rutgers started hot in non-conference play but has struggled to find its footing in Big Ten action. It’s not that their early wins have lost value—if anything, the Virginia Tech win looks better in hindsight.
The real problem lies in their inconsistency. Their offense sputtered against Nebraska, and their defense crumbled against Wisconsin. Over the last three games, the Scarlet Knights have been outscored 129-59, with neither side of the ball holding up its end of the deal.
Even after digging into the stats, Rutgers remains a mystery. They’ve lost the spark they had early in the season. Did the bye week help them get it back?
Call it a hunch, but I think Rutgers hangs tough early. That said, I have a lot of faith in Minnesota’s defense. A couple of ill-timed turnovers could swing the game wide open. Rutgers isn’t built to play catch-up, and when they’re forced to press, things tend to unravel.
Watch for true freshman safety Koi Perich—he’s chasing his fifth interception in as many games. Expect a close battle early, but Minnesota should grind out a low-scoring, two-score win.
Prediction: Minnesota 23, Rutgers 14
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