One of college football’s most-played rivalries will be renewed on Saturday when the 2-2 Minnesota Golden Gophers head to Ann Arbor to take on the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines.
The Little Brown Jug will be on the line in our Minnesota vs. Michigan prediction.
Minnesota vs. Michigan Betting Preview
All Minnesota vs. Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan -14 - Spread
Michigan -10.5 - Moneyline
Minnesota +330, Michigan -425 - Over/Under
34.5 - Game Time
12 p.m. ET - Location
Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, MI - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, partly cloudy - How To Watch
FOX
After covering the spread for the first time all season against USC, Michigan opened up as an 8.5-point favorite and has been backed in the early portion of betting, receiving 88% of the bets placed on the spread. The Wolverines are 8-2-1 against the spread in conference games since the start of last season.
Michigan has outscored the Gophers by an average of 30 points in their last three head-to-head matchups. And that number has climbed to 10 points for Michigan on the spread.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The stout Michigan defense, which allowed only 10.7 points per game against conference opponents last season, has been keeping the totals under control. Since the start of last season, the game has gone under the total six of the last nine times Michigan entered as a home favorite.
Minnesota has not covered the spread in either of its two games as an underdog in 2024. In fact, they have covered the spread just once in their last seven games as an underdog since the start of last season.
The Golden Gophers will play their first road game of the season on Saturday. Five of the last eight Minnesota road contests have seen the game go under the total.
Minnesota Winning Probabilities
The battle for the Little Brown Jug itself appears bleak, and Minnesota is set to battle uphill seemingly for the rest of the season. CFN’s Football Playoff Meter gives Minnesota just a 14.9% chance at knocking off Michigan in this one, in line with the rest of their winning probabilities down the stretch.
Using CFN’s FPM and Strength of Schedule metrics, we look at just how often the Gophers could be the favorites down the back half of the season.
- USC 27.0%
- @ UCLA 51.2%
- Maryland 51.8%
- @ Illinois 31.2%
- @ Rutgers 41.1%
- Penn State 14.9%
- @ Wisconsin 36.9%
The Gophers may find themselves favored in only two games as the season progresses, so finding wins whenever they can is going to be paramount for bowl eligibility.
Michigan Winning Probabilities
Unlike their opponents, the Wolverines should be favorites in the majority of their remaining games. Using the CFN FPM, we look at the winning probabilities for each game remaining on the Michigan schedule:
- @ Washington 64.6%
- @ Illinois 62.6%%
- Michigan State 87.4
- Oregon 37.4%
- @ Indiana 64.6%
- Northwestern 94.3%
- @ Ohio State 17.9%
Getting Oregon at home lends some comfort to their chances in that game, but the big one is certainly the big finale, as it is every year. The Game itself should be in favor of the Buckeyes, but we truly don’t know who this OSU team is as they have not been tested just yet it appears.
Before their clash at the end of the season, however, it appears that this Wolverines team should be in the running for the Playoffs once again.
Prediction for Minnesota vs. Michigan
Michigan has controlled this rivalry in recent years, taking 43 of the last 47 matchups between the two schools. Minnesota is looking for its first road victory against an AP-ranked Wolverines squad since 2005. Last season, Michigan’s 52-10 rout marked the worst defeat for the Gophers under head coach P.J. Fleck.
Though it wasn’t exactly a masterpiece, the Wolverines head into this game fresh off a comeback win over USC, where they erased a late fourth-quarter deficit to push their Big Ten winning streak to a school-record 26 games.
Expect a classic Big Ten-style clash in this matchup, with both teams heavily reliant on the ground game. Michigan’s passing attack has been virtually nonexistent, evident by their mere 32 passing yards in last week’s win over USC.
The Wolverines have shifted quarterbacks early in the season, turning to Alex Orji after initially starting Davis Warren, and have leaned heavily on their rushing game—running the ball 46 times compared to just 12 passes against the Trojans.
Look for Michigan to continue its ground-and-pound approach, led by a strong backfield duo. Kalel Mullings, who set a career-high with 159 yards last week, highlighted by a 53-yard touchdown run, will look to power the offense alongside Donovan Edwards, who scored his 17th career rushing touchdown.
〽️ 17 car.
〽️ 159 yards
〽️ 2 TDKalel Mullings posted his second straight 150-yard, 2-TD effort in a win over No. 11 USC.#B1GFootball x @UMichFootball pic.twitter.com/wTyre40WlV
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 21, 2024
On the other side, Minnesota’s Max Brosmer has shown flashes of promise, throwing two second-quarter touchdown passes against Iowa last week. However, he struggled after halftime, managing only 44 passing yards as the Gophers fell short. Despite those inconsistencies, Brosmer, a sixth-year transfer, could provide P.J. Fleck with the most reliable passing option since Tanner Morgan’s 30-touchdown season in 2019.
If the Gophers can protect Brosmer and establish a rhythm early, they’ll have a chance to challenge Michigan’s defensive front but expect the Wolverines to lean on their dominant run game to control the tempo and secure the victory.
Michigan’s offensive identity is built around running the football. That’s a concern for Fleck, as his run defense has been exposed at times during the early stretch of the season. The Golden Gophers have given up an average of 123.8 rushing yards per game against North Carolina, Rhode Island, Nevada, and Iowa.
It might not be flashy, but neither Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore nor the Wolverines’ fan base will mind if Michigan has to keep grinding it out on the ground to secure wins. The decision to go with Orji under center only reinforces that mindset—you can expect another 75-25 run-to-pass ratio moving forward.
The tandem of Mullings and Edwards averaged over 7.3 yards per carry against the Trojans. Expect the Wolverines to stick to that blueprint and lean on their defense to contain an offense currently ranking 15th out of 18 Big Ten teams in yards per play.
Prediction: Michigan 27, Minnesota 9
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