Conference USA takes the national spotlight this week, and on Thursday night, the UTEP Miners travel to Bowling Green to take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Can Scotty Walden’s team get their first victory of the year, or will Tyson Helton’s Hilltoppers continue their winning start to conference play in weekday CUSA?
Our UTEP vs. Western Kentucky prediction contains the answers, the latest betting odds, and the Miners and Hilltoppers’ winning probabilities for the rest of the 2024 college football campaign.
UTEP vs. Western Kentucky Betting Preview
All UTEP vs. Western Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Western Kentucky -13 - Spread
Western Kentucky -19 - Moneyline
Western Kentucky -1050, UTEP +675 - Over/Under
57 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium | Bowling Green, KY - Predicted Weather at Kick
44.6 degrees, clear and chilly, 2.5 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Thursday night marks the fifth matchup between the two programs, and Western Kentucky is a perfect 4-0 dating back to the first meeting in 2014. UTEP has played the Hilltoppers close in all but one meeting (they were on the receiving end of a 40-16 shellacking in 2018), with three clashes coming down to a one-score game. In 2017, they were separated by just one point. However, don’t expect a similar situation this time around.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The College Football Network Football Playoff Meter (FPM) might have it slightly closer than the -19 spread offered by DraftKings, but both are indicative of how far apart the programs are heading into Week 7. Not only are UTEP winless this year, but they’ve also covered the spread just once in 2024. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is 4-1 against the spread and on a run of four consecutive games covering. The points spread is set high, but with UTEP’s defense, the Hilltoppers may drive the over
UTEP’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, UTEP has a 17.2% chance of winning this CUSA clash. The Miners have only been favored by our metric in one game so far this season, and they lost that to FCS Southern Utah.
This is comfortably UTEP’s most difficult conference game. Here is how the Miners’ remaining schedule looks in terms of winning probability:
- at Western Kentucky: 17.2%
- vs. FIU: 44.4%
- at Louisiana Tech: 49.2%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 48.8%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 73.4%
- at Tennessee: 1%
- at New Mexico State: 49.2%
If those winning percentages hold true, UTEP’s only win of the season will come against first-year FBS outfit Kennesaw State. They would end the season with a 1-11 record, the worst for the program since 2019.
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
Meanwhile, the CFN FPM gives the Hilltoppers an 82.8% chance of winning on Thursday night. It’s worth noting that the FPM correctly predicted Louisiana Tech’s 3-2 start to the season, although the line was significantly shorter than the final result against Alabama and had Western Kentucky as a touchdown underdog to Boston College.
Here are Western Kentucky’s remaining winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. UTEP: 82.8%
- at Sam Houston: 52.8%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 92.1%
- at New Mexico State: 74.6%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 81.1%
- at Liberty: 38.1%
- vs. Jacksonville State: 70.3%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, Western Kentucky would finish the season with a 9-3 overall record and a 7-1 CUSA record. That should comfortably put them in the conference championship game, likely a rematch of their clash with the Liberty Flames. The CFN FPM gives the Hilltoppers a 17.7% chance of winning the conference.
Prediction for UTEP vs. Western Kentucky
After suffering a horror show to start Walden’s tenure in El Paso, the winless Miners make their way to Bowling Green for a clash with a Hilltoppers team that looks set for the conference summit. Their Thursday night matchup is ultimately a meeting of two teams on opposite trajectories, and our UTEP vs. Western Kentucky prediction offers little hope for the Miners.
Western Kentucky will celebrate its return to the midweek mayhem with an extra special helmet that might just be the most beautiful thing you’ll see this season. That has literally no bearing on the result whatsoever other than adhering to the mantra that “you look good, you feel good, you play good.” The Hilltoppers don’t really need any more reason to be feeling themselves as they’re already one of the top teams in the conference.
Helton’s team put up nearly 50 points in their CUSA opener, and there’s every reason to believe they can do the same against UTEP. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp leads the conference in completion percentage and has done an effective job spreading the ball around the Hilltoppers’ offense. Five different players have double-digit receptions and over 100 receiving yards. Kisean Johnson leads the way with four receiving touchdowns.
The UTEP defense is prime for picking apart by the passing game, having allowed the third-highest completion percentage to opposition quarterbacks in CUSA (66.7%) while snagging just one interception through their five losses. If you look purely at yards per game allowed, the Miners rank first in the conference, but don’t be fooled. They’ve faced an average of 25.2 attempts per game, one of the lowest in the nation.
Meanwhile, the Miners’ offense is one of the most anemic in all college football. Ranking 125th in the country, they’ve averaged just 15.8 points per game. There’s little in the way of a run game to worry about, with just two rushing touchdowns and an average of 2.9 yards per carry. Starting quarterback Skyler Locklear has more interceptions than touchdowns, while Cade McConnell completed just 53.6% of his pass attempts last week.
The Western Kentucky defense is hardly a world-beater, actually giving up more passing plays over 10+ yards and allowing an average of 25.2 points. However, you have to factor the Alabama game into that average. They have some playmakers in the secondary led by Upton Stout while Terrion Thompson and Kylan Guidry live in the opposition backfield. They might not be the best unit in the nation, but they won’t have to be on Thursday night.
Prediction: UTEP 20, Western Kentucky 45
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.