It’s been less than a year since Washington and Michigan squared off in the College Football National Championship Game. Since then, the transfer portal, NFL Draft, and coaching shakeups have reshaped both rosters, shifting the outlooks for the Huskies and Wolverines.
Now, they meet again on Saturday in a showdown where the stakes might be higher for the team that falls short. As Michigan heads west, can the Wolverines improve to 4-1, or will the Huskies hold strong at home? Check out our Michigan vs. Washington prediction to find out.
Michigan vs. Washington Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Washington odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan -6 - Spread
Washington -1 - Moneyline
Washington -112, Michigan -108 - Over/Under
40 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Husky Stadium | Seattle, WA - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
Despite falling to Rutgers last week, Washington opened as a two-point favorite on Sunday afternoon, and the line has since shifted to make the Huskies a three-point favorite. This could be due to Michigan’s recent offensive struggles or the way their defense faltered against Minnesota in the second half.
But more likely, it’s a nod to Washington’s perceived home-field advantage.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Huskies are 2-3 against the spread this season, with both covers coming as double-digit favorites. The only time they were a single-digit favorite, they failed to cover and lost outright. Michigan, meanwhile, hasn’t been much better, going 1-4 against the spread so far.
However, they covered and won outright the last time they were a single-digit underdog against a former Pac-12 opponent.
Michigan’s Winning Probability
The College Football Network Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a bit kinder to the Wolverines than the Vegas line, as it has Michigan as a pretty decent, six-point favorite in this one. That translates to a win probability of 66.4%.
The wild card here is that the Wolverines haven’t played away from the Big House this season, but a win would put them in a nice position for the rest of the year. The Wolverines’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Washington: 66.4%
- at Illinois: 60.6%
- vs Michigan State: 87.4%
- vs. Oregon: 34.9%
- at Indiana: 54.3%
- vs. Northwestern: 94.4%
- at Ohio State: 17.2%
Washington’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Washington has a 33.6% chance to win Saturday, per FPM, meaning a win would have a huge effect on its expected win total for the season. The Huskies’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Michigan: 33.6%
- at Iowa: 35.9%
- at Indiana: 34.9%
- vs. USC: 36.4%
- at Penn State: 9.2%
- at Oregon: 7.1%
- vs. UCLA: 75.1%
Prediction for Michigan vs. Washington
Washington’s inexperience is showing, as the Huskies returned just three starters from last season’s College Football Playoff runner-up team. Last week, they were pushed around by a physical Rutgers squad—though it’s worth mentioning Rutgers has done the same to several teams this year.
Washington does have a slight rest advantage over Michigan, who played on Saturday afternoon. Both teams are dealing with travel fatigue—Washington flew cross-country last week, and this will be Michigan’s first road trip of the season.
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Michigan’s offense leans heavily on the run game, and it’s been effective—at least against less talented opponents. They rank in the top 30 in yards per carry and rushing yards per game, using Alex Orji’s physicality to wear down defenses.
That’s my concern for Washington. The Huskies might have a slight talent edge, but while their run defense numbers look decent, they were worn down by Rutgers, and Michigan is built to do the same. Washington’s offense has shown promise, but they’re one of the most penalized teams in the nation and have struggled on third downs.
I see Michigan’s defense dictating the pace, and their offense grinding out just enough to secure a gritty, low-scoring victory.
Prediction: Michigan 21, Washington 17
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