It’s less than a year since the Washington Huskies and Michigan Wolverines faced off in the College Football National Championship Game. In that time, player turnover via the portal and NFL Draft combined with coaching changes have significantly changed the fortunes of the two programs.
They’ll face off on Saturday in a game where the implications might be bigger for the loser than the winner. As Michigan flies west, can the Wolverines move to 4-1 on the year, or will the Huskies defend their home turf? Before you bet, take a look at our Michigan vs. Washington prediction.
Michigan vs. Washington Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Washington odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan -6 - Spread
Washington -3 - Moneyline
Washington -142, Michigan +120 - Over/Under
41 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Husky Stadium | Seattle, WA - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
Despite losing last time out to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Washington opened as a two-point favorite on Sunday afternoon, and the line has moved a little to make the Huskies a field-goal favorite. Perhaps this is bolstered by some offensive issues for Michigan or even by how the vaunted defensive collapsed against Minnesota in the second half, but it is more likely a representation of Washington’s perceived home-field advantage.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Washington is 2-3 against the spread so far this fall, with both successes coming when being a double-digit favorite. The only time they’ve been a single-digit favorite they failed to cover and lost the game. Michigan is also on the wrong side of their spread record, going 1-4 through five games, but covered and won the game the last time they were a single-digit underdog against a former Pac-12 side.
Michigan’s Winning Probability
The College Football Network Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a bit kinder to the Wolverines than the Vegas line, as it has Michigan as a pretty decent, six-point favorite in this one. That translates to a win probability of 66.3%.
The wild card here is that the Wolverines haven’t played away from the Big House this season, but a win would put them in a nice position for the rest of the year. The Wolverines’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Washington: 66.7%
- at Illinois: 60.6%
- vs Michigan State: 87.4%
- vs. Oregon: 39.4%
- vs. Wisconsin: 65.1%
- at Indiana: 54.4%
- vs. Northwestern: 93.7%
- at Ohio State: 17.2%
Washington’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Washington has a 33.6% chance to win Saturday, per FPM, meaning a win would have a huge effect on its expected win total for the season. The Huskies’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Michigan: 33.6%
- at Iowa: 35.9%
- at Indiana: 34.9%
- vs. USC: 36.4%
- at Penn State: 9.2%
- at Oregon: 7.1%
- vs. UCLA: 75.1%
- vs. Oregon: 82.8%
Prediction for Michigan vs. Washington
Washington’s inexperience is showing, as the Huskies only returned three starters from last year’s College Football Playoff National Championship runners-up team. Last week, the Huskies got beaten down by a physical Rutgers team, but in fairness to Washington, Rutgers has done that to several teams on the schedule this season.
The Huskies have a slight rest advantage over the Wolverines, who played Saturday afternoon. Both teams could be travel-weary after the Huskies played all the way on the east coast and the Wolverines leave Michigan for the first time this season.
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Michigan’s offense is completely one-dimensional, and it seems to be working, at least against teams with less talent than the Woverines. They’re in the top 30 in yards per rush and rushing yards per game, and with Alex Orji at the quarterback position, the Wolverines are simply wearing down defenses with a relentless ground attack.
That’s what concerns me for the Huskies. Washington could be the more talented team, but while the overall rushing defense numbers are solid, the Huskies were battered by Rutgers; I think Michigan can do the same. Washington’s offense has consistently moved the ball but has been one of the most penalized units in the country and has really struggled on third downs.
I think Michigan’s defense imposes its will while the offense does just enough to win outright in a low-scoring, ugly game.
Prediction: Michigan 21, Washington 17
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