Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith is well-acquainted with facing Oregon, having gone up against them multiple times during his tenure at Oregon State. Now leading the Spartans, Smith once again has his team playing the role of resilient underdogs in his debut season. While there have been some rough patches, Michigan State has shown signs of promise in Year 1.
On the other side, Oregon has cruised through the early part of their schedule but is now hitting its stride and playing its best football.
Will the Spartans be able to keep up with the high-powered Ducks? Dive into our Michigan State vs. Oregon prediction to find out.
Michigan State vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -23.5 - Spread
Oregon -24 - Moneyline
Oregon -2400, Michigan State +1200 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
Oct. 4, 9 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore. - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, partly sunny, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are aligned on this one, as both have Oregon as heavy favorites. With a spread of 24 points and a total of 52, Vegas implies a final score close to 38-14 in favor of the Ducks.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread has dropped slightly from 24.5 to 24, while the total has remained largely unchanged, though most of the bets have been on the over.
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
FPM has Michigan State as a 23.5-point underdog, giving it a win probability of 4.7%. While the Spartans are likely underdogs for most of the Big Ten slate, this represents their hardest remaining game.
The Spartans’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Oregon: 4.7%
- vs. Iowa: 35.9%
- at Michigan: 12.6%
- vs. Indiana: 34.9%
- at Illinois: 25.4%
- vs. Purdue: 64.1%
- at Rutgers: 39.4%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oregon has a 95.3% chance to win on Saturday. While the Ducks have a few hard games left on the schedule, they’re mostly at home, and there’s a real chance the Ducks could go undefeated in the regular season, with just two games with a winning probability of under 87%.
The Ducks’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Michigan State: 95.3%
- vs. Ohio State: 52.8%
- at Purdue: 94.3%
- vs. Illinois: 90.4%
- at Michigan: 65.1%
- vs. Maryland: 94.1%
- at Wisconsin: 87.4%
- vs. Washington: 92.9%
Prediction for Oregon vs. Michigan State
On paper, this looks like a major mismatch, but the Spartans haven’t been blown out, and the Ducks haven’t dominated anyone this season.
Neither team has performed well against the spread: the Ducks have only covered once (against Oregon State), and the Spartans managed it just once against Maryland.
The key question will be whether Michigan State’s offense can put up any kind of fight.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
If Michigan State only scores seven points against Oregon—like they did against Ohio State—the game will follow a similar script. The Buckeyes covered a similar 23.5-point spread by scoring early and often, creating a cushion in the second half because they knew the Spartan offense wouldn’t pose much of a threat.
Meanwhile, Oregon could really use a convincing win on national TV. After being touted as a dark horse for the national title, they’ve looked a bit disjointed through four games.
The Ducks don’t want another sloppy victory, especially at home before next Saturday’s huge matchup with Ohio State.
The outcome of this game won’t be in question, but I’m curious about the Dillon Gabriel factor. He hasn’t seemed as comfortable in this Oregon offense as many expected. Michigan State’s defensive front could create some pressure and make things difficult for him. It’s not enough to change the result, but it might be enough to keep the score closer than expected.
I see the Spartans covering without scoring much, which makes me lean towards the under as well. Oregon hasn’t looked sharp, and I can’t trust them to cover a big spread until they prove otherwise.
Your move, Oregon. Time to show what you’ve got.
Prediction: Oregon 31, Michigan State 13
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.