For the first time since 1928, both the Michigan State Spartans and Michigan Wolverines enter their rivalry game carrying three or more losses. Despite their records, the intensity of this storied matchup is as fierce as ever, with both teams gearing up to battle for pride and the treasured Paul Bunyan Trophy.
As kickoff nears for this pivotal Big Ten showdown, here’s an in-depth look at the latest odds, a breakdown of the spread, and our prediction for Michigan State vs. Michigan.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan -8.5 - Spread
Michigan -3 - Moneyline
Michigan -148, Michigan State +124 - Over/Under
39 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, Mich. - Predicted Weather at Kick
48 degrees, 3 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
BTN
After opening as a six-point spread, Michigan has seen the line drop to -3.5, likely due to Michigan State’s performance against Iowa last week (32-20 win).
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Bettors should note the Spartans are 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games vs. Michigan, as well as 4-2 ATS in their last six contests this season. Meanwhile, the Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in 2024 — one of their worst marks since the turn of the century.
There are also a couple of conflicting trends when it comes to the total:
- The under has hit in eight of MSU’s last 10 games.
- The over has hit in 12 of Michigan’s last 18.
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
Despite the spread’s movement, the FPM still views Michigan State as the clear underdog, setting the program’s win probability at 25.4%.
In fact, the Spartans own 22% or lower rates in their next two contests before being favored in their final two:
- vs. Indiana: 19.4%
- at Illinois: 21.9%
- vs. Purdue: 75.3%
- vs. Rutgers: 51.2%
Michigan’s Winning Probability
As much of a disappointing season as it’s been for Michigan, the team still has a 74.6% win probability against their in-state rival. However, it only gets worse from here, with bouts against Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State still on deck.
- at Oregon: 17.0%
- vs. Indiana: 22.6%
- at Northwestern: 85.1%
- vs. Ohio State: 9.6%
Prediction for Michigan State vs. Michigan
Michigan has owned the all-time series against Michigan State, leading 73-38-5, with home-field advantage playing a significant role in Ann Arbor, where the Wolverines have won 19 of their last 20 games at the Big House.
The Spartans last claimed victory in this rivalry in 2021, when Kenneth Walker III powered them to a 37-33 win with an unforgettable five-touchdown performance. Now in 2024, both teams stand at 4-3 overall and 2-2 in Big Ten play, marking the first unranked matchup since 2008.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Michigan, the reigning national champion, aims to snap a two-game losing streak following a 21-7 defeat to Illinois. Meanwhile, Michigan State returned strong after a bye week, beating Iowa 32-20.
With nearly entirely new rosters since last year’s blowout, where Michigan cruised to a 49-0 victory, both teams bring fresh faces. The Spartans boast 61 new players and a new coaching staff under Jonathan Smith, while Michigan, led by new head coach Sherrone Moore, is adjusting to a revamped lineup, including a new quarterback and restructured offensive line.
With the total points set low, the under looks tempting as Michigan (21.2 PPG, 112th) and Michigan State (21.6 PPG, 110th) are both struggling offensively.
Quarterback play has been a key challenge for both teams. Michigan has benched two QBs (Davis Warren and Alex Orji), while Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles has struggled, with a 59.3% completion rate, six touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
Michigan State’s defense held Iowa’s Heisman candidate Kaleb Johnson in check last week and will likely take a similar approach against Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards. Still, Chiles could be vulnerable to turnovers against Michigan’s solid defense, especially with star cornerback Will Johnson close to full strength.
Expect Michigan to win and cover, though a repeat of last year’s blowout seems unlikely.
Prediction: Michigan 20, Michigan State 13
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