The Michigan State Spartans stumble into the Illinois Fighting Illini with a 4-5 record, burdened by five losses in their last six games—a brutal stretch capped by a demoralizing 47-10 blowout at the hands of Indiana on their own field just two weeks ago. The Spartans arrive battered, not just physically but mentally, as they search for elusive answers.
Illinois, on the other hand, sits at 6-3, though not without its own struggles. Consecutive losses to top-ranked Oregon and Minnesota have shaken their momentum. Yet, at 3-3 in Big Ten play, the Illini still cling to something Michigan State has let slip away: the hope for a season that could still turn into something memorable.
Michigan State vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Illinois -7.5 - Spread
Illinois -2.5 - Moneyline
Illinois -130, Michigan State +110 - Over/Under
48 points - Game time
Saturday, Nov. 16, 2:30 p.m. ET - Location
Memorial Stadium | Champaign, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
58 degrees, cloudy, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
FS1
This line opened with the Illini as three-point favorites and has floated anywhere from -3.5 to -2. With considerable action expected on this one, this number will likely continue to sway until kickoff on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total has seen a bit less action as it opened at 47.5 and briefly spiked to 48.5 before returning to the opening number, where it currently sits.
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s FPM, the Spartans have a 27% chance of defeating the Illini on Saturday. If the win probabilities hold, Michigan State would finish the season at 5-7. While some may see that as disappointing, this program was in turmoil when head coach Jonathan Smith took over for Mel Tucker.
- at Illinois: 27%
- vs. Purdue: 78.1%
- vs. Rutgers: 51.8%
Illinois’ Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Illinois has a 73% chance of defeating Michigan State on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Illinois would finish 2024 with a record of 9-3. This would be a massive step in the right direction for head coach Bret Bielema in his fourth season. Nine wins would be the most for Illinois football since 2007 under Ron Zook.
- vs. Michigan State: 73%
- at Rutgers: 55.6%
- at Northwestern: 75.3%
Prediction for Michigan State vs. Illinois
In a season marked by significant shifts across the conference, this matchup brings a familiar Big Ten flavor. Michigan State and Illinois have faced off seven times since 2006, their most recent clash being a hard-fought battle in 2022. In that game, Michigan State stunned Illinois 23-15 as 16.5-point underdogs, delivering one of the season’s biggest surprises.
The Spartans opened this season with promise, rattling off three straight wins, including a gritty conference victory over Maryland. For a moment, it felt like this might be the year they recaptured some Big Ten relevance after recent struggles. But that early momentum has faded. Michigan State has dropped five of their last six games, with an offense unable to keep pace when it matters most.
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Illinois, on the other hand, is in a much different position. A strong start, highlighted by wins over Michigan, Nebraska, and Kansas, has put the Fighting Illini on the cusp of bowl eligibility.
However, recent losses before their bye week raised questions about their consistency.
This game is a crucial opportunity for Illinois to regroup. When the Illini score at least 20 points, they’re undefeated—a testament to their ability to control the game when their offense finds rhythm.
For Michigan State, the challenge is steep. The Spartans have surrendered 23 or more points in every road game this season. Against Illinois’ sturdy defense, breaking that trend will be a tough ask. If Illinois can force quarterback Aidan Chiles into passing situations, turnovers could follow, giving their defense a chance to shine while setting up the offense for a much-needed bounce-back performance.
Turnovers and mistakes have been a killer for Michigan State this season, and they’re simply not built to overcome them. Look for Illinois to cover the spread at home and take a confident step forward.
Prediction: Illinois 27, Michigan State 16