Despite the Big Ten’s expansion in 2024, some classic, hard-nosed, low-scoring battles endure. This Saturday, one of those matchups is set between the Michigan Wolverines and the Illinois Fighting Illini.
With two tough defenses squaring off in a traditional Big Ten clash, who will emerge victorious? Dive into our prediction for the Michigan vs. Illinois showdown.
Michigan vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan -2 - Spread
Michigan -5 - Moneyline
Michigan -205, Illinois +170 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Illinois Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, sunny, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
The CFN Football Playoff Meter and Vegas spread differ slightly, but both favor the Wolverines. This line opened as a near pick ’em before bets poured in on Michigan.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The total is set at 44.5 points, indicative of the defensive talent — and the struggling offenses — in this one. With a spread of 5 points, the implied final score is close to 24-19 in favor of the Wolverines.
Michigan’s Winning Probability
Per the FPM, the Wolverines are in danger of a disappointing season. Michigan has a 53.4% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about two points.
The Wolverines are favored in three of their remaining games. Here are Michigan’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Illinois: 53.4%
- vs. Michigan State: 83.5%
- vs. Oregon: 25.4%
- at Indiana: 37.4%
- vs. Northwestern: 91.5%
- at Ohio State: 17.0%
Illinois’ Winning Probability
FPM thinks Illinois could win several of its remaining games. The Fighting Illini have a 46.6% chance to win the game, per FPM, their second-hardest remaining game on the schedule. They have several true winnable games left on the schedule, making this a crucial game.
Here are the Fighting Illini’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Michigan: 46.6%
- at Oregon: 8.3%
- vs. Minnesota: 64.6%
- vs. Michigan State: 74.9%
- at Rutgers: 50.6%
- at Northwestern: 75.5%
Prediction for Michigan vs. Illinois
It’s clear by now that this year’s Michigan team is a far cry from last season’s version. Despite a 4-2 record, the Wolverines have struggled against strong defenses, with an offense that’s become frustratingly one-dimensional. Sherrone Moore is now on his third quarterback, but the results haven’t improved.
Meanwhile, Illinois has found success by sticking to what works. The Illini have focused on a few go-to plays, and as long as they’re effective, they’re sticking with them.
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This season, their recipe for success has been targeting receivers Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, who have combined for nearly 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. The defense has been steady, apart from a surprising 49-point outing allowed against Purdue.
Fortune has also favored Illinois, as they’re 2-0 in overtime and 3-0 in one-score games. Outside of a loss to Penn State, their offense has been efficient, defying the typical style of Bret Bielema’s teams.
Michigan is still a tough opponent but lacks consistency at quarterback. They might benefit from using the Wildcat formation or even incorporating elements of the triple option.
As the season progresses, Michigan could face tougher challenges. They haven’t had a 100-yard passer since September 14, and Illinois has the defensive front to test their run game, likely forcing them to pass.
In 2024, Michigan will struggle in any game where they’re forced to rely on the pass.
Look for Luke Altmyer to put up a strong performance, applying pressure on whichever quarterback Michigan decides to field. Take Illinois and the over, especially with the Illini getting more than a field goal.
Prediction: Illinois 27, Michigan 24
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