The Miami (FL) Hurricanes and California Golden Bears have met just four times, with the last game coming in 2008. The record? 2-2. Who will leave Week 6 with the upper hand?
Check out the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our prediction for Miami vs. California ahead of Saturday’s ACC matchup.
Miami (FL) vs. California Betting and DFS Preview
All Miami vs. California odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -11.5 - Spread
Miami -12.5 - Moneyline
Miami -500, California +380 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, 7 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
After opening at Miami -10 with a 53.5 total, both numbers have risen by a couple of points. Why? Well, the Hurricanes are second in the country in both yards (585.6) and points (49.4) per game.
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With one of the best offenses in the country, it’s not surprising the over is 4-0-1 in Miami games this season. Yet, it’s 0-4 when Cal is on the field, so the total likely hinges on whether the Bears can contribute enough points to push the scoring over the threshold.
Miami’s Winning Probability
There’s little doubt Miami will leave California with a victory, as the CFN’s FPM gives the program an 80.2% win probability. If anything, that may be a little low, considering the Golden Bears just lost 14-9 to a disappointing Florida State program.
Here are the Hurricanes’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Louisville: 61.9%
- vs. Florida State: 92.9%
- vs. Duke: 88.3%
- at Georgia Tech: 66.9%
- vs. Wake Forest: 92.1%
- at Syracuse: 74.3%
Cal’s Winning Probability
By way of subtraction, that gives the Golden Bears a win probability of 19.8%. Playing at home certainly boosts their chances, but they’ll need a near-flawless performance to capitalize against the undefeated ‘Canes. At least Week 6 marks Cal’s most one-sided projection the rest of the way.
Here are the Bears’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Pittsburgh: 33.6%
- vs. NC State: 58.9%
- vs. Oregon State: 54.3%
- at Wake Forest: 50.6%
- vs. Syracuse: 50%
- vs. Stanford: 62.6%
- at SMU: 33.6%
Prediction Miami (FL) vs. California
Cal’s offensive strength was supposed to be All-Pac-12 RB Jaydn Ott and the ground game. Yet, with Ott dealing with an ankle injury, the Bears have struggled, averaging just 3.86 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Miami has been a powerhouse in all phases this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive 34.4 points per game. With Heisman hopeful Cam Ward at the helm, the Hurricanes boast one of the top offenses in the nation, ranking fourth in EPA per play and ninth in success rate. Their defense has also held its own, sitting 13th in EPA per play.
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Cal’s metrics are underwhelming at best, with the offense checking in at 112th in EPA per play and the defense ranking 65th in success rate. Miami’s aggressive defense, averaging 8.0 tackles for loss per game, will likely dominate in the backfield.
Coupled with their high pass rate (36.2 attempts per game), the Hurricanes are poised to cover the spread comfortably and make an example out of Cal after nearly falling to Virginia Tech last week.
Prediction: Miami 41, Cal 17
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