SEC College Football Playoff Rankings: Every Team’s Playoff Probabilities

SEC College Football Playoff Rankings: Every Team’s Playoff Probabilities

Find the SEC Football Playoff Rankings, examined by the CFN Football Playoff Meter, with up-to-the-minute predictions of the SEC's postseason chances.

The SEC could place as many as five teams in the new 12-team College Football Playoffs if all goes to plan. And yet, that would feel as if a team or two is being left out of the postseason race when all is said and done.

Find out every SEC team’s road to the postseason using the CFN Football Playoff Meter and each of the conference’s map to the Playoffs.

2024 SEC Football Playoff Meter

The CFN FPM analyzes each team’s up-to-the-minute postseason chances. Using a simulation model based off power rankings and a variety of other factors, the table below gives you each SEC team’s chances to win out, projected win totals, chances to win the SEC, and chances to advance in each round of the College Football Playoffs.

This table is best viewed in landscape mode on a mobile device.

TeamConferenceW-LFPMPreseason S.O.S.Remaining S.O.S.Projected W-LWin Out %Win Conf.%Make Playoff%Make CFP NC%Win CFP NC%
TexasSEC6-033.821810.9-1.127.46%52.14%81.03%28.00%15.02%
Ohio StateB1G5-132.023279.9-2.126.67%44.48%45.60%27.97%14.49%
OregonB1G6-032.0255111.4-0.651.94%35.39%98.17%28.42%14.02%
GeorgiaSEC5-131.84219.6-2.414.50%12.89%28.00%29.51%15.25%
Penn StateB1G6-030.8214511.0-1.031.10%17.71%86.85%12.18%6.24%
AlabamaSEC5-130.56389.6-2.415.78%8.54%26.84%12.22%6.28%
LSUSEC5-127.81599.2-2.810.41%14.08%17.99%11.52%5.34%
Miami-FLACC6-026.0495710.8-1.224.80%49.15%76.40%10.75%5.22%
TennesseeSEC5-126.032519.3-2.77.46%1.45%19.37%10.16%4.85%
ClemsonACC5-125.319699.9-2.226.35%43.57%42.42%9.44%4.36%
Texas A&MSEC5-125.014489.3-2.79.15%9.83%19.31%10.27%4.70%
Ole MissSEC5-224.527358.5-3.512.54%0.05%11.49%9.25%4.15%
BYUBig 126-024.0385510.5-1.515.88%27.38%65.35%0.06%0.01%
IndianaB1G6-023.8633110.1-1.95.58%2.12%52.53%0.02%0.01%
Notre DameInd.5-123.845639.8-2.222.52%036.84%0.03%0.01%
Iowa StateBig 126-023.0444710.3-1.712.36%33.84%59.36%0.03%0.00%
MissouriSEC5-122.053369.0-3.14.56%0.99%15.55%0.02%0.00%
UtahBig 124-221.861438.0-4.07.81%1.49%7.88%0.01%0.00%
MichiganB1G4-221.8377.1-4.90.66%0.16%1.44%0.00%0.00%
Kansas StateBig 125-120.848489.0-3.06.95%19.27%16.22%0.02%0.01%
USCB1G3-320.35537.0-5.08.65%0.00%1.53%0.00%0.00%
ArizonaBig 123-319.862597.1-4.99.89%2.40%1.62%0.01%0.00%
SMUACC5-118.868568.8-3.26.73%5.42%14.98%0.00%0.00%
West VirginiaBig 123-318.520416.5-5.53.42%1.46%0.31%0.00%0.00%
LouisvilleACC4-218.341156.9-5.10.87%0.33%0.97%0.00%0.00%
Georgia TechACC5-218.31257.1-4.90.55%0.01%1.54%0.00%0.00%
VanderbiltSEC4-218.06156.8-5.20.34%0.03%0.71%0.00%0.00%
Boise StateMWC5-117.879909.8-2.222.39%67.61%33.44%0.01%0.00%
PittsburghACC6-017.859259.1-2.91.65%1.20%16.77%0.00%0.00%
UNLVMWC5-117.575839.6-2.417.54%26.41%22.12%0.02%0.01%
Texas TechBig 125-117.555368.2-3.81.76%10.54%9.12%0.00%0.00%
IowaB1G4-217.547688.1-3.99.15%0.12%8.11%0.01%0.01%
IllinoisB1G5-117.535278.2-3.80.72%0.01%9.13%0.01%0.00%
NebraskaB1G5-117.343127.7-4.30.20%0.01%4.71%0.00%0.00%
OklahomaSEC4-217.32236.6-5.40.17%0.00%0.32%0.00%0.00%
KentuckySEC3-316.810386.0-6.00.23%0.00%0.04%0.00%0.00%
ArkansasSEC4-216.811176.7-5.30.22%0.00%0.49%0.00%0.00%
Oklahoma StateBig 123-316.555275.9-6.11.01%0.13%0.05%0.00%0.00%
Washington StatePac-125-116.3851169.9-2.128.11%57.00%44.08%0.03%0.01%
James MadisonSun Belt5-116.013413010.1-1.939.06%29.97%44.22%0.02%0.01%
SyracuseACC5-116.067448.0-4.01.10%0.09%7.80%0.00%0.00%
Arizona StateBig 125-115.824207.6-4.40.48%2.13%3.66%0.00%0.00%
Boston CollegeACC4-215.533467.1-4.91.60%0.13%1.39%0.00%0.00%
WisconsinB1G4-215.329106.3-5.70.11%0.00%0.17%0.00%0.00%
Virginia TechACC3-315.063425.9-6.11.05%0.06%0.01%0.00%0.00%
RutgersB1G4-215.055587.2-4.81.69%0.00%1.89%0.00%0.00%
CaliforniaACC3-314.851666.6-5.43.68%0.00%0.34%0.00%0.00%
South CarolinaSEC3-314.816335.5-6.50.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TulaneAAC4-214.580938.4-3.613.66%33.15%6.61%0.00%0.00%
ColoradoBig 124-214.536346.7-5.30.60%1.02%0.47%0.00%0.00%
MinnesotaB1G4-314.534196.0-6.00.64%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.00%
Texas StateSun Belt4-214.31311228.8-3.225.52%42.05%9.62%0.01%0.00%
WashingtonB1G4-314.33015.5-6.50.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MemphisAAC5-114.0951109.6-2.418.41%5.58%20.19%0.00%0.00%
TCUBig 123-313.838325.6-6.40.48%0.31%0.01%0.00%0.00%
FloridaSEC3-313.8134.7-7.30.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
LibertyCUSA5-013.01331199.6-1.418.42%72.77%25.18%0.00%0.00%
DukeACC5-113.059507.8-4.20.51%0.03%6.02%0.00%0.00%
UCFBig 123-312.55064.6-7.40.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
VirginiaACC4-212.340145.9-6.10.04%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%
CincinnatiBig 124-212.052246.1-5.90.11%0.03%0.07%0.00%0.00%
AuburnSEC2-412.025103.9-8.10.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
BaylorBig 122-411.542544.6-7.40.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ArmyAAC6-011.3124919.9-2.14.44%52.12%31.86%0.00%0.00%
Michigan StateB1G3-311.027305.1-6.90.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
KansasBig 121-511.058263.1-8.90.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MarylandB1G3-311.04644.5-7.50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Oregon StatePac-124-210.870656.9-5.10.77%43.00%1.02%0.00%0.00%
NavyAAC5-010.898749.0-3.01.10%7.34%11.33%0.00%0.00%
NC StateACC3-410.866605.3-6.71.42%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Western KentuckyCUSA4-210.5831208.1-3.98.15%15.55%6.89%0.00%0.00%
Fresno StateMWC3-310.0881177.2-4.812.06%3.26%1.44%0.00%0.00%
LouisianaSun Belt5-19.51201038.9-3.14.99%19.59%10.99%0.00%0.00%
Northern IllinoisMAC4-28.0971247.9-4.17.14%23.11%6.61%0.00%0.00%
USFAAC2-48.0761286.0-6.08.11%0.82%0.03%0.00%0.00%
Wake ForestACC2-48.053624.4-7.60.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
North CarolinaACC3-47.865675.0-7.00.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
PurdueB1G1-57.81222.1-9.90.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Florida StateACC1-57.517613.3-8.70.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Bowling GreenMAC2-47.3991255.8-6.26.43%5.63%0.04%0.00%0.00%
StanfordACC2-47.336634.2-7.80.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Sam HoustonCUSA5-16.8911018.4-3.62.74%6.15%9.07%0.00%0.00%
UL-MonroeSun Belt5-16.571777.7-4.30.68%4.98%2.64%0.00%0.00%
NorthwesternB1G3-36.530134.3-7.70.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
HoustonBig 122-46.018213.2-8.80.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Jacksonville StateCUSA3-35.5105885.9-6.10.86%3.15%0.02%0.00%0.00%
Colorado StateMWC3-35.3801266.5-5.53.41%2.51%0.17%0.00%0.00%
ToledoMAC4-25.01261097.2-4.82.12%4.52%1.80%0.00%0.00%
OhioMAC4-24.51171277.5-4.63.42%22.69%2.93%0.00%0.00%
MarshallSun Belt3-34.5781016.1-5.91.09%0.51%0.04%0.00%0.00%
UCLAB1G1-54.58402.2-9.80.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
San Jose StateMWC4-24.3100706.1-5.90.08%0.04%0.02%0.00%0.00%
Miami-OHMAC2-44.0911185.2-6.81.99%22.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Western MichiganMAC3-34.0901136.1-5.91.73%12.19%0.08%0.00%0.00%
North TexasAAC5-14.0119867.6-4.40.35%0.93%2.08%0.00%0.00%
Mississippi StateSEC1-54.09182.2-9.80.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Georgia SouthernSun Belt4-23.8891056.9-5.10.98%2.08%0.38%0.00%0.00%
BuffaloMAC4-23.01251327.3-4.72.60%8.14%2.35%0.00%0.00%
Coastal CarolinaSun Belt4-23.01161116.9-5.11.17%0.16%0.39%0.00%0.00%
New MexicoMWC3-33.086925.7-6.30.53%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Eastern MichiganMAC4-22.81271217.0-5.01.48%0.80%1.06%0.00%0.00%
San Diego StateMWC3-32.8102715.0-7.00.03%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%
HawaiiMWC2-42.8123784.2-7.80.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Louisiana TechCUSA2-32.51181125.4-6.60.25%2.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%
South AlabamaSun Belt2-42.393954.6-7.40.42%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%
RiceAAC2-42.3111754.1-7.90.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
FIUCUSA2-42.01301345.3-6.72.42%0.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Appalachian StateSun Belt2-42.093984.1-7.90.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UConnInd.4-22.01211046.7-5.30.38%00.35%0.00%0.00%
Central MichiganMAC3-31.8111895.3-6.70.32%0.29%0.01%0.00%0.00%
Arkansas StateSun Belt3-31.8951235.8-6.20.96%0.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%
CharlotteAAC3-31.8100805.1-6.90.08%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Ball StateMAC2-41.5106794.1-7.90.08%0.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TulsaAAC2-41.51291314.9-7.11.14%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%
Georgia StateSun Belt2-31.5107824.5-7.50.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UTSAAAC2-41.31091004.5-7.50.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NevadaMWC3-41.387724.9-8.10.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Utah StateMWC1-50.382953.4-8.60.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ECUAAC3-30.0128995.3-6.70.18%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%
FAUAAC2-40.01321294.8-7.20.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Middle TennesseeCUSA1-50.0771333.8-8.20.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TroySun Belt1-50.01081153.4-8.60.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ODUSun Belt2-40.072813.9-8.10.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Air ForceMWC1-5-0.5114842.8-9.20.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Southern MissSun Belt1-5-1.0103853.0-9.00.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
WyomingMWC1-5-1.0111732.6-9.40.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UMassInd.1-6-1.069762.7-9.30.00%00.00%0.00%0.00%
TempleAAC1-5-2.01151073.1-8.90.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
AkronMAC1-5-2.5741143.0-9.00.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Kent StateMAC0-6-3.0731061.8-10.20.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UABAAC1-5-3.0110952.8-9.20.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
New Mexico StateCUSA1-5-3.8104872.7-9.30.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UTEPCUSA0-6-4.0841082.1-9.90.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Kennesaw StateCUSA0-5-7.0121941.4-10.60.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

SEC Winning Probabilities

Using the CFN FPM in the SEC exclusively, we can take a look at each team’s winning probability and projected spread for the week ahead. While this is not a prediction, this is the computer’s number in comparison to what the betting spreads may look like for each game that involves an SEC team.

MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

Alabama (-22) @ Vanderbilt
Win Probability: 94.4%

Arkansas (12.5) vs. Tennessee 
Win Probability: 17.2%

Auburn (23.5) @ Georgia
Win Probability: 4.8%

Florida (-1) vs. UCF
Win Probability: 50.8%

Georgia (-23.5) vs. Auburn
Win Probability: 95.2%

Kentucky (-11.5) vs. Vanderbilt
Win Probability: 80.6%

LSU (-4.5) vs. Ole Miss
Win Probability: 62.6%

Mississippi State (28.5) @ Georgia
Win Probability: 1.2%

Missouri (-5) @ Texas A&M
Win Probability: 64.4%

Oklahoma (13.5) vs. Texas
Win Probability: 20.7%

* Texas & Oklahoma have a bye week to prepare for the Red River Showdown

Ole Miss (-7) @ South Carolina
Win Probability: 70.3%

South Carolina (7) vs. Ole Miss
Win Probability: 29.7%

Tennessee (-12.5) @ Arkansas
Win Probability: 82.8%

Texas (-13.5) vs. Oklahoma
Win Probability: 79.3%

* Texas & Oklahoma have a bye week to prepare for the Red River Showdown

Texas A&M (5.25) vs. Missouri
Win Probability: 35.4%

Vanderbilt (22) vs. Alabama
Win Probability: 5.6%

College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.