SEC College Football Playoff Rankings: Every Team’s Playoff Probabilities

SEC College Football Playoff Rankings: Every Team’s Playoff Probabilities

Find the SEC Football Playoff Rankings, examined by the CFN Football Playoff Meter, with up-to-the-minute predictions of the SEC's postseason chances.

The SEC could place as many as five teams in the new 12-team College Football Playoffs if all goes to plan. And yet, that would feel as if a team or two is being left out of the postseason race when all is said and done.

Find out every SEC team’s road to the postseason using the CFN Football Playoff Meter and each of the conference’s map to the Playoffs.

2024 SEC Football Playoff Meter

The CFN FPM analyzes each team’s up-to-the-minute postseason chances. Using a simulation model based off power rankings and a variety of other factors, the table below gives you each SEC team’s chances to win out, projected win totals, chances to win the SEC, and chances to advance in each round of the College Football Playoffs.

This table is best viewed in landscape mode on a mobile device.

TeamConf.W-LFPMTotal Season S.O.S.S.O.S. RankProj. W-LWin Out %Win Conf.%Make Playoff%Make CFP NC%Win CFP NC%
Ohio StateB1G10-233.5199.32310.0-2.0100.00%0.00%95.75%28.34%14.86%
OregonB1G12-033.0178.84212.0-0.0100.00%64.10%100.00%28.84%15.35%
TexasSEC11-132.8213.31511.0-1.0100.00%53.40%100.00%28.42%15.05%
GeorgiaSEC10-230.8225.51010.0-2.0100.00%46.60%92.14%27.13%13.74%
TennesseeSEC10-229.0172.54910.0-2.0100.00%0.00%100.00%11.46%5.54%
Penn StateB1G11-128.8183.03811.0-1.0100.00%35.90%98.78%11.08%5.25%
Notre DameInd.11-128.5162.35711.0-1.0100.00%0.00%100.00%11.62%5.62%
IndianaB1G11-127.8130.56711.0-1.0100.00%0.00%99.89%11.15%5.50%
South CarolinaSEC9-327.3200.5219.0-3.0100.00%0.00%20.32%10.97%4.97%
AlabamaSEC9-327.0230.399.0-3.0100.00%0.00%24.30%9.73%4.44%
Ole MissSEC9-326.0183.8379.0-3.0100.00%0.00%0.03%11.33%5.23%
SMUACC11-125.0142.56411.0-1.0100.00%53.80%53.80%9.76%4.35%
Texas A&MSEC8-424.8217.0148.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.00%
FloridaSEC7-524.0231.387.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Miami-FLACC10-223.0157.85810.0-2.0100.00%0.00%14.64%0.02%0.01%
LouisvilleACC8-423.0194.5288.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Arizona StateBig 127-222.8184.8358.8-3.219.98%50.80%50.80%0.03%0.03%
ClemsonACC9-322.8164.5549.0-3.0100.00%46.20%46.20%0.00%0.00%
Iowa StateBig 1210-222.0163.05510.0-2.0100.00%49.20%49.20%0.04%0.03%
LSUSEC8-422.0235.878.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ColoradoBig 129-321.8154.0619.0-3.0100.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%
IllinoisB1G9-321.0180.0419.0-3.0100.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%
MichiganB1G7-520.8254.017.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
BYUBig 1210-220.5157.85810.0-2.0100.00%0.00%13.26%0.00%0.00%
MissouriSEC9-319.8178.8429.0-3.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TCUBig 128-419.3148.0638.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Boise StateMWC11-119.096.87811.0-1.0100.00%50.80%50.80%0.03%0.02%
Kansas StateBig 128-419.0182.8398.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Georgia TechACC7-519.0189.8337.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
BaylorBig 128-418.8178.3448.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MinnesotaB1G7-518.5173.5487.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UNLVMWC10-218.393.38110.0-2.0100.00%49.20%49.20%0.05%0.01%
SyracuseACC9-318.3152.3629.0-3.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Texas TechBig 128-418.0174.8468.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
IowaB1G8-417.8169.3518.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
VanderbiltSEC6-617.8208.5166.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
KansasBig 125-716.8220.5135.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ArkansasSEC6-616.8189.5346.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
OklahomaSEC6-616.8238.566.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
West VirginiaBig 126-616.5181.0406.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
USCB1G6-616.0225.0116.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
DukeACC9-316.0128.8689.0-3.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NebraskaB1G6-615.5193.8306.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TulaneAAC9-315.090.5889.0-3.0100.00%50.60%0.11%0.00%0.00%
WashingtonB1G6-615.0198.5246.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Boston CollegeACC7-515.0164.8537.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ArmyAAC10-114.559.811910.8-1.278.10%49.40%9.23%0.00%0.00%
RutgersB1G7-514.5155.0607.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Virginia TechACC6-614.5196.5266.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
WisconsinB1G5-714.3194.0295.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MemphisAAC10-214.049.012910.0-2.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
CaliforniaACC6-613.8130.8666.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NC StateACC6-612.8162.5566.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
LouisianaSun Belt10-212.045.513010.0-2.0100.00%57.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%
AuburnSEC5-711.8202.3185.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UCLAB1G5-711.5244.535.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
KentuckySEC4-811.3243.544.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Michigan StateB1G5-711.0200.3225.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
VirginiaACC5-711.0176.8455.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Miami-OHMAC8-410.883.5988.0-4.0100.00%50.60%0.23%0.00%0.00%
Georgia SouthernSun Belt8-410.580.31008.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UtahBig 125-710.5174.3475.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
OhioMAC9-310.361.01189.0-3.0100.00%49.40%0.09%0.00%0.00%
Bowling GreenMAC7-510.079.31027.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
CincinnatiBig 125-710.0191.0325.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
USFAAC6-610.085.3936.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ArizonaBig 124-89.8184.5364.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
North CarolinaACC6-69.8131.0656.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Jacksonville StateCUSA8-49.553.51258.0-4.0100.00%50.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%
PittsburghACC7-59.5170.0507.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Western KentuckyCUSA8-49.376.01088.0-4.0100.00%49.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MarshallSun Belt9-39.077.01079.0-3.0100.00%42.60%0.12%0.00%0.00%
HoustonBig 124-89.0202.8174.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
James MadisonSun Belt8-48.336.81338.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Colorado StateMWC8-48.094.3808.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UCFBig 124-87.8198.5244.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Oregon StatePac-125-77.3118.5695.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Texas StateSun Belt7-57.371.31147.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Washington StatePac-128-47.090.0898.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UTSAAAC6-67.076.01086.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
South AlabamaSun Belt6-66.879.81016.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
BuffaloMAC8-46.843.51318.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Wake ForestACC4-86.8166.3524.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Fresno StateMWC6-66.891.8846.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NavyAAC8-36.598.5768.3-3.733.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Sam HoustonCUSA9-36.355.01239.0-3.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MarylandB1G4-86.3200.8204.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ToledoMAC8-46.361.81168.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
LibertyCUSA8-36.029.81348.0-3.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
StanfordACC3-95.5201.0193.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Northern IllinoisMAC7-55.083.8977.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
New MexicoMWC5-75.061.51175.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NorthwesternB1G4-84.8192.8314.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
San Jose StateMWC7-54.878.81037.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Air ForceMWC5-74.577.81065.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Oklahoma StateBig 123-94.0195.3273.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Appalachian StateSun Belt5-63.889.0925.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Western MichiganMAC6-63.878.31056.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
North TexasAAC6-63.584.3966.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Utah StateMWC4-83.392.8824.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Arkansas StateSun Belt7-53.369.51157.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Mississippi StateSEC2-103.0246.322.0-10.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UConnInd.8-43.051.01278.0-4.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Louisiana TechCUSA5-73.049.31285.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
HawaiiMWC5-72.078.51045.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TroySun Belt4-82.074.81104.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Florida StateACC2-101.5224.0122.0-10.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UL-MonroeSun Belt5-71.095.3795.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
CharlotteAAC5-71.0102.3755.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Central MichiganMAC4-81.071.81124.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Coastal CarolinaSun Belt6-61.071.51136.0-6.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
New Mexico StateCUSA3-90.574.81103.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Eastern MichiganMAC5-70.359.01205.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
PurdueB1G1-110.0239.351.0-11.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ECUAAC7-50.043.31327.0-5.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
FAUAAC3-90.057.01223.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
ODUSun Belt5-70.0116.0725.0-7.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
RiceAAC4-80.092.5834.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Ball StateMAC3-9-0.597.5773.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
WyomingMWC3-9-0.5106.8743.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Georgia StateSun Belt3-9-0.889.8913.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UABAAC3-9-1.085.0943.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
FIUCUSA4-8-1.553.01264.0-8.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
AkronMAC3-9-1.8118.3703.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UTEPCUSA3-9-1.881.3993.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NevadaMWC3-10-2.0110.5733.0-10.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Middle TennesseeCUSA3-9-2.084.5953.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
San Diego StateMWC3-9-2.390.0893.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TempleAAC3-9-2.391.0863.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UMassInd.2-10-3.091.5852.0-10.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TulsaAAC3-9-4.053.81243.0-9.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Kennesaw StateCUSA2-10-5.058.31212.0-10.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Southern MissSun Belt1-11-7.391.0861.0-11.0100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Kent StateMAC0-12-8.0116.5710.0-12.0#N/A0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

SEC Winning Probabilities

Using the CFN FPM in the SEC exclusively, we can take a look at each team’s winning probability and projected spread for the week ahead. While this is not a prediction, this is the computer’s number in comparison to what the betting spreads may look like for each game that involves an SEC team.

MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

Alabama (-22) @ Vanderbilt
Win Probability: 94.4%

Arkansas (12.5) vs. Tennessee 
Win Probability: 17.2%

Auburn (23.5) @ Georgia
Win Probability: 4.8%

Florida (-1) vs. UCF
Win Probability: 50.8%

Georgia (-23.5) vs. Auburn
Win Probability: 95.2%

Kentucky (-11.5) vs. Vanderbilt
Win Probability: 80.6%

LSU (-4.5) vs. Ole Miss
Win Probability: 62.6%

Mississippi State (28.5) @ Georgia
Win Probability: 1.2%

Missouri (-5) @ Texas A&M
Win Probability: 64.4%

Oklahoma (13.5) vs. Texas
Win Probability: 20.7%

* Texas & Oklahoma have a bye week to prepare for the Red River Showdown

Ole Miss (-7) @ South Carolina
Win Probability: 70.3%

South Carolina (7) vs. Ole Miss
Win Probability: 29.7%

Tennessee (-12.5) @ Arkansas
Win Probability: 82.8%

Texas (-13.5) vs. Oklahoma
Win Probability: 79.3%

* Texas & Oklahoma have a bye week to prepare for the Red River Showdown

Texas A&M (5.25) vs. Missouri
Win Probability: 35.4%

Vanderbilt (22) vs. Alabama
Win Probability: 5.6%

College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.