This week is all about gratitude, and what better to be thankful for than the highly anticipated Black Friday showdown between the Miami (OH) RedHawks and the Bowling Green Falcons? These two MAC powerhouses face off with everything on the line—the winner punches their ticket to the MAC Championship Game.
Who will come out on top? Our Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green prediction breaks it all down, covering everything from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they close out the 2024 college football season.
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Betting Preview
All Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Bowling Green -2.5 - Spread
Bowling Green -2.5 - Moneyline
Bowling Green -125, Miami (OH) +105 - Over/Under
38.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Doyt L. Perry Stadium | Bowling Green, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
32 degrees, windy with a few snow flurries, 16 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Friday sees the 78th edition of the Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green matchup, and the stakes have never been higher. The RedHawks won the last time the two teams met (2023) and hold a substantial 47-25-5 advantage over their in-state MAC rival. They’re also on a six-game win streak this year. However, the Falcons enter the game as a slender favorite by the oddsmakers.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The CFN FPM concurs with the oddsmakers, with both offering a spread of 2.5 in favor of Bowling Green. The RedHawks are 0-4 outright when entering the game as an underdog and have covered the spread just once in that situation (against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish). The Falcons are 5-2 as an outright favorite, but 3-5 ATS. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games, however.
Miami (OH)’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Miami (OH) has a 46.2% chance of beating Bowling Green on Friday afternoon. Our metric projected a 10-2 record for the RedHawks in 2024, but sit at 7-4 ahead of this pivotal MAC matchup. Miami’s out-of-conference schedule got them off to a slow start, and the CFN FPM also projected a win against the Toledo Rockets that ended up as a 20-30 loss.
Bowling Green’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Bowling Green has a 53.8% chance of beating Miami (OH) on Friday afternoon. Our metric projected the Falcons to have a 10-2 record in the 2024 season, forecasting two losses (to the Penn State Nittany Lions and Texas A&M Aggies). However, they dropped two games against expectations (Old Dominion Monarchs and Northern Illinois Huskies) to sit 7-4.
Prediction for Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green
Get ready for a Black Friday showdown as the RedHawks and Falcons clash with a spot in the MAC Championship Game on the line. While multiple scenarios are in play, the simplest one is this: win, and you’re in. Bowling Green is eyeing its first championship game appearance since 2015, after reaching the title game three straight years from 2013-2015.
Standing in their way is a Miami (OH) squad determined to become the first team to defend the MAC title since Northern Illinois accomplished the feat in 2011-2012. Both teams enter the matchup on fire, with the RedHawks riding a six-game win streak and the Falcons on a five-game tear.
So, who has the edge? Where will this game be won, and who punches their ticket to Detroit?
Expect cold. Expect wind. Expect snow—or as we call it, quintessential MACtion weather.
There couldn’t be a more fitting setting to determine the MAC Championship Game contenders, and the conditions will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in shaping this Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green battle.
When the wind howls through Doyt L. Perry Stadium, a strong ground game becomes essential. Both teams come prepared. Behind running back Keyon Mozee, the RedHawks boast the fourth-best rushing yards per carry in the MAC (4.55). On the other side, Bowling Green averages 152.82 rushing yards per game and ranks fourth in the MAC for rushing touchdowns, with 20 scores on the ground.
Their two-headed backfield monster features Terion Stewart, who leads with 856 rushing yards, and Jaison Patterson, who adds 397 yards and four touchdowns to the mix.
Offensively, Bowling Green has outscored Miami (OH) by an average of 4.2 points per game this season, led by star tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who’s a key factor as both a receiver and blocker. However, his status for Friday is uncertain, and if he’s out, his absence in the trenches could swing the game, especially in these weather conditions.
Defense will also be crucial in this win-or-go-home game. Miami (OH) enters with the 13th-ranked scoring defense nationally, giving up just 17.8 points per game. Matthew Salopek is a do-it-all force, Brian Ugwu has been a nightmare for opposing backfields, and Raion Strader leads the nation in passes defended.
But while the RedHawks’ defense looks formidable, the red zone could tell a different story.
In red zone defense, Bowling Green holds a distinct edge, allowing touchdowns on just 45.16% of opponent trips. Miami (OH), by contrast, has given up touchdowns on 58.62% of red zone visits. On offense, the Falcons have been far more efficient in the red zone, while the RedHawks have struggled, converting just 41.67% of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns.
If those trends hold, Bowling Green could be packing their bags for Detroit, while Miami (OH) will be left hoping for chaos in the form of losses by Ohio and Buffalo.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 21, Bowling Green 23
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