The Mercer Bears are a familiar foe for the Alabama Crimson Tide, having faced off four times in their history: 1939 (20-0), 1940 (20-0), 2017 (56-0), and 2021 (48-14). While the FCS program came up short in all four matchups, the 2021 contest saw the Bears cover the spread as massive 54-point underdogs. Can they pull off a similar feat in Week 12?
Our Mercer vs. Alabama preview breaks down the matchup, delivering key betting insights to help guide your picks.
Mercer vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All Mercer vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -41.5 - Spread
Alabama -42 - Moneyline
n/a - Over/Under
58.5 points - Game Time
2:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
67 degrees, 3 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
SECN+/ESPN+
The Bears have been favored in all but one game this season and are 7-3 against the spread. Alabama’s 5-4 ATS record isn’t as impressive, especially when considering they haven’t covered in their three games as 20+ point favorites.
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In terms of the total, the under is the trendy play, as it has hit in four of Mercer’s five road games this season and in three straight Crimson Tide contents.
Mercer’s Winning Probability
The Bears are the No. 7 FCS team in the nation, with their only loss coming against the Samford in Bulldogs mid-October. Will they pull off the unthinkable upset? No, but they can keep the game more competitive than casual fans may realize.
A loss to a ranked FBS team won’t knock Mercer out of the FCS Top 10, and the program gets a nice rebound spot to finish the regular season with the 2-7 Furman Paladins coming to town.
- at Alabama: 0.01%
Alabama’s Winning Probability
The Crimson Tide don’t need to be 100% focused to beat the Bears, but they do need to be if they hope to cover the 40+ point spread. However, Alabama’s main focus is on winning out, as that’s their path to the expanded College Football Playoff and a long-shot spot in the SEC Championship.
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 81.1%
- vs. Auburn: 94.1%
Prediction for Mercer vs. Alabama
Unfortunately for the Bears, the Crimson Tide is on a tear. Alabama has shut out the Missouri Tigers 34-0 and dismantled the LSU Tigers 42-13 in back-to-back games, allowing just one touchdown while forcing six takeaways.
The Tide’s offense hasn’t even relied on dual-threat QB Jalen Milroe to air it out. Instead, the ground game has churned out 582 yards and 10 touchdowns over the last two matchups. Safe to say, Mercer is staring down a tough challenge.
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Still, it’s a challenge Mercer can endure. While their defense hasn’t looked as sharp since the loss to Samford, the Bears remain elite in several categories: eighth in points allowed (16.6), 10th in total yards (291.5), and first in rushing yards allowed per game (54.7).
Oh, and Mercer leads the nation in third-down defense, holding opponents to a 21.4% conversion rate. Of course, forcing Alabama into those critical downs will be its own uphill battle.
There’s no moneyline for a reason—Alabama is winning this game. But all Mercer needs to do is keep the margin within 40 points. With a defense that’s out to prove something, the Bears could make things interesting enough to cover the spread, even if they can’t stop the Crimson Tide from cruising to a comfortable win.
Prediction: Alabama 42, Mercer 10
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