Every March, when the madness takes its course, and the bracket talks are all the world can think of, one name keeps coming up. And that is KenPom. Coaches seem to swear by it, and analysts lean on it.
What is it, who created it, and why does it matter? We break it all down.
What Is the Story Behind KenPom? And Why Is It Relevant?
The man behind KenPom is Ken Pomeroy. Before Ken Pomeroy became college basketball’s numbers guru, he was earning his degree from Virginia Tech and the University of Wyoming in meteorology.
He spent over a decade predicting weather patterns for the National Weather Service. But the 1980s hardwood battles in his Northern Virginia backyard changed the course of his life.
In the early 2000s, what began as a hobby for Pomeroy turned into a revolutionary tool. Pomeroy launched kenpom.com, a website loaded with statistical deep dives into every Division I basketball team dating back to 2002.
By 2007, he was feeding ESPN broadcast teams with behind-the-scenes numbers, though most of his insights never made it to air.
But today, those same numbers are plastered in locker rooms, factored into game plans, and even referenced by the NCAA tournament selection committee. Coaches now shape strategies based on KenPom data.
So, how does it work?
At the heart of KenPom is possession. The site breaks games down possession by possession, offering a more accurate read than traditional stats like points per game.
The main figures include the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, which is the points per 100 possessions against an average opponent.
Then there’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which is the same concept as AOE but how many points a team allows. And last but not least, the all-important Net Rating, which combines the two.
There is another interesting factor. Luck! Luck is an actual stat. It measures how far a team’s actual win percentage strays from what the numbers suggest it should be. It’s the metric for when teams win or lose close games in weird ways. The Duke vs. Houston game, for example.
As said, numbers can’t predict everything, but they can explain a lot.
KenPom, of course, has some limitations. One of the main criticisms is injuries.
The model doesn’t adjust for key players being sidelined. If a star is out in round one, the numbers won’t reflect that until after the damage is done. So, while KenPom is a powerful tool, context still matters.
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A user can access the basic stats on kenpom.com for free. Meanwhile, the full-year subscription costs just $24.95.
From predicting upsets to scouting the next Cinderella, KenPom has changed how college basketball is understood.
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