The magic of March Madness may be fading forever. During his appearance on The Dan Patrick Show, ESPN’s Paul Finebaum delivered a sobering reality check about college basketball’s future, declaring that beloved underdog programs simply cannot compete anymore.
Finebaum painted a bleak picture for mid-major programs just days after the landmark House v. NCAA settlement received final approval. The $2.8 billion settlement allows schools to directly pay athletes for the first time, fundamentally changing college sports forever.
Mid-Major Programs Era Over Due to NIL Changes
Speaking candidly about the settlement’s impact on The Dan Patrick Show, Finebaum didn’t sugarcoat the brutal reality that smaller programs will face. His assessment was stark and unforgiving when discussing schools like Butler and Davidson that captured fans’ hearts with improbable tournament runs.
“There’s no way if you’re a small college basketball program like Butler 10 years ago or some of these other programs that have just been so exciting, Davidson making a run with Steph Curry, you really don’t have a chance.”
The numbers support Finebaum’s grim prediction. Under the new revenue-sharing model, power conference schools can distribute up to $20.5 million annually to athletes. In comparison, most mid-majors average just $850,000 – roughly one-twentieth of what elite programs can offer.
The transfer portal has accelerated this talent drain. Finebaum explained the devastating cycle: “Even if you are good, if you have a junior or a sophomore, he’s going to one of the top teams for his final year. He’s not sticking around.”
Transfer Portal and Revenue Sharing Impact on College Basketball
The SEC Network host emphasized that “the biggest issue in college athletics is the portal” because coaches are constantly rebuilding rosters.
This chaos has particularly devastated mid-major programs like Robert Morris, which saw nearly its entire roster, including its starting five, enter the transfer portal after a successful turnaround season. Meanwhile, top players at power programs command multi-million dollar NIL deals like Purdue’s Braden Smith, with his $1.9 million valuation as one of basketball’s highest earners.
Butler University, once the poster child for mid-major success with back-to-back championship game appearances in 2010 and 2011, had raised over $7.5 million in the 2024-25 season for NIL funding. However, their efforts pale compared to what power programs offer their athletes.
The 2025 NCAA tournament showed signs of this trend, marking the first time since 1985 that no true Cinderella teams reached the Sweet 16. All remaining teams came from power conferences, suggesting that Finebaum’s dire predictions may materialize in real time.
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Finebaum also predicted broader consequences beyond basketball, warning that “women’s sports, in my opinion, will be hurt. Olympic sports will be crushed.” His assessment that this system “is only going to help the rich” reflects college athletics’ fundamental transformation into financial competition.
With the NCAA’s enforcement power essentially eliminated and federal intervention unlikely, mid-major programs face an unprecedented survival challenge. As Finebaum declared the NCAA “essentially dead,” the golden age of March Madness magic appears to be ending as college basketball becomes a competition reserved for the financial elite.
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