The 2025 NCAA Tournament has delivered the drama, and now just eight teams remain. Four No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds, and one No. 3 seed are left standing as the tournament heads into a high-stakes Elite Eight weekend, with a Final Four berth in San Antonio on the line.
As betting lines tighten and intensity builds, each matchup offers compelling contrasts—from Duke’s defensive grit to Alabama’s explosive offense, to coaching legends preparing for yet another deep run. Here’s a breakdown of the matchups.
Elite Eight Matchup Analysis
Duke vs. Alabama (Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET)
Duke enters as a 7-point favorite over Alabama in what figures to be a clash of strengths. The Blue Devils are anchored by freshman standout Cooper Flagg, a National Player of the Year candidate who averages 18 points and 8 rebounds per game.
Flagg appears fully recovered from an ankle injury and leads a roster that went 10-2 in Quad 1 games. Duke advanced by knocking off Arizona behind a strong showing from Kon Knueppel and a deep backcourt.
Duke’s top-10 defense (allowing 0.88 points per possession) faces its toughest test yet against Alabama, which leads the nation in scoring at 90 points per game. Senior guard Mark Sears is averaging 21.5 points and helped power a record-breaking performance with 25 made three-pointers in the Sweet 16 win over BYU.
Alabama owns an 11-7 mark in Quad 1 games but closed the regular season 3-4, raising questions about consistency.
Prediction: Duke 85 and Alabama 78
Florida vs. Texas Tech (Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET)
Florida takes the floor as a 6.5-point favorite after winning nine straight. The Gators’ high-powered offense, led by Walter Clayton Jr., dominated in a Sweet 16 win over Maryland.
Head coach Todd Golden has guided Florida to a 30-4 record, though close calls—such as a 77-75 win over UConn—highlight vulnerabilities.
Texas Tech counters with freshman JT Toppin (16 points, 8 rebounds per game) and a physical frontcourt. However, injuries to key players Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian, who missed the Big 12 tournament final, could play a role.
The Red Raiders have posted an 8-2 record in Quad 1 games. Line movement from -4.5 to -6.5 in favor of Florida shows where the public is leaning. The outcome may come down to who wins the battle in the paint.
Prediction: Florida 82 and Texas Tech 76
Houston vs. Tennessee (Sunday, 2:20 p.m. ET)
Houston is favored by 3.5 points in a game expected to be a defensive grind. The Cougars have won 13 straight, capped by a clutch Sweet 16 win over Purdue behind 22 points and a game-winning layup from Milos Uzan.
J’Wan Roberts has returned to health, strengthening an already dominant roster. Houston finished 19-1 in Big 12 play under coach Kelvin Sampson.
Tennessee brings elite perimeter defense behind Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack, with Chaz Lanier providing scoring. The Volunteers edged Kentucky in the Sweet 16 without injured Jaxson Robinson.
Their 9-6 Quad 1 record and experience from last year’s Elite Eight run make them dangerous. Still, Houston swept them during the regular season. Oddsmakers set a low total of 123.5, anticipating a slow, physical contest.
Prediction: Houston 74 and Tennessee 68
Auburn vs. Michigan State (Sunday, 5:05 p.m. ET)
Auburn, the tournament’s top overall seed, faces a familiar March challenge in Michigan State and head coach Tom Izzo. The Tigers are 5-point favorites, led by Johni Broome and a deep rotation that’s spent more weeks at No. 1 than any other team this season.
Auburn’s Sweet 16 win over Michigan came after trailing by nine at halftime, showing the team’s resilience after a late-season dip.
Michigan State pulled off a gritty win over Ole Miss and brings one of the tournament’s most experienced coaches to the table in Izzo, who is making his 16th Elite Eight appearance.
The Spartans feature a top-10 defense (0.90 points per possession allowed) and rising star Jase Richardson. With an 11-4 record in Quad 1 games, the Spartans are battle-tested. This one could come down to late-game execution and rebounding.
Prediction: Michigan State 71 and Auburn 69
Elite Eight Schedule
Saturday- March 29, 2025
- Florida vs. Texas Tech: 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS, Max, March Madness Live)
- Duke vs. Alabama: 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS, Max, March Madness Live)
Sunday- March 30, 2025
- Houston vs. Tennessee: 2:20 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+, March Madness Live)
- Auburn vs. Michigan State: ~5:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+, March Madness Live)
With the Final Four looming in San Antonio on April 5 and the national championship set for April 7, the path to the title is narrowing. All eight Sweet 16 favorites advanced, and the betting lines suggest tighter contests ahead.
KEEP READING: NCAA Tournament Evolution
As favorites continue to dominate, the SEC’s depth and Duke’s defensive prowess will be tested in what’s shaping up to be a thrilling close to March Madness.
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