March Madness is very much a tournament of stories. Walter Clayton Jr. has stolen most of the headlines, and deservedly so. Still, Houston’s defense has also earned attention after clamping down a Duke team that, your humble narrator included, believed was the most talented roster in this field.
With those two strengths pulling in opposite directions, this total is tough to evaluate, but with some creativity, I’ve got a lean.
March Madness Championship Game: Betting The Total
I don’t think I’m unique in holding far more “under” tickets than “overs.” This is true, for me, across the board, but my numbers seem to lean toward embracing the negative side of variance in college sports more than the pros — the thought being that, no matter how good these kids are, the level of offensive upside just isn’t what we see in the NBA.
From a macro point of view, I agree with this train of thought, but we are very much out of the macro business now. There’s one game left. Forty minutes. This specific matchup comes with some interesting trends and that resulted in my jumping on this total when it opened.
- FanDuel: Over 140.5 points (-110)
Houston’s offense is a bet on efficiency and has been since Kelvin Sampson took over. They aren’t overly concerned about the possession count. Instead, they want to ensure that they are giving their high-level talent bites at the apple.
The best way to do that is to get shots on every possession. Simple. They are always good at doing that, but in terms of limiting turnovers, things have been even better during this tournament.
Houston Turnover Rate Splits, Offense
- March Madness: 8.1% of possessions
- This Season Prior: 11.6% of possessions
That’s significant growth and gives this traditionally defensive-minded team more offensive upside than casual fans assume. Of course, betting a total based on the trajectory of one offense and not the other is dangerous, so let’s take a look at how the Gators match up with this vicious defense.
The Cougars’ defense has been the driving force behind their success for years, yes, but it’s looked a little different in tournament play.
Houston Turnover Rate Splits, Defense
- March Madness: 13.3% of opponent possessions
- This Season Prior: 17.6% of opponent possessions
They buckle down and are disciplined. For this iteration of Houston, that means packing things in a bit as opposed to jumping passing lanes, They have the type of roster that can succeed in defending this way, but given the shot making of Florida, one has to wonder if it’ll succeed at a high level.
Before you say it, yes, so did Duke, and they managed just 67 points on Saturday night. The Blue Devils made one (1) shot over the final 10.5 minutes of their Final Four defeat, but does that undo what I was just talking about?
Everyone wants to bet Walter Clayton Jr. points and I get it. A look at @FDSportsbook‘s scoring lines, viewed through the lens of percentage of points scored by this quintet
If the first five rounds are predictive …
UNDERS on Richard/Condon
OVERS on Clayton/Martin/Haugh pic.twitter.com/67GFgaPP9W— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) April 6, 2025
They turned the ball over on just 9.9% of their possessions (two games prior: 14.1%, this season: 11.7%) and had success on the perimeter (41.2% from 3 with their two best players making six of nine attempts). Duke isn’t playing for a title because they shot 38.9% from inside the arc – they attacked Houston, where Houston is strongest.
Some games are won by playing at your best, but others are decided by which team doesn’t allow the opponent to be comfortable. I suspect that Florida will look to learn from what Duke did poorly and play a wide-open offense that relies on making shots.
Will that work? Maybe, maybe not, but that’s not what we are worried about here. In betting this total, we need access to scoring upside, and we’ve seen enough from this Gators offense to assume we are getting that when they launch/
I expect this to be a higher than normal three-point rate game for Florida based on the matchup, and in their 17 games where they attempted more triples than their season average, they’ve averaged 87.3 points per game, clearing 80 in 16 of those contests.
We’ve seen as much reflected in the betting results. In Florida’s 11 lowest cumulative turnover rate games (their turnover rate summed with that of their opponent), overs are 8-3. Of that sample, five came in March…
- March 5 at Alabama: 193 points scored (over/under: 178.5)
- March 15 vs. Alabama: 186 points scored (over/under: 180)
- March 16 vs. Tennessee: 163 points scored (over/under: 142.5)
- March 23 vs. UConn: 152 points scored (over/under: 150.5)
- March 29 vs. Texas Tech: 163 points scored (over/under: 158.5)
At first, I thought the lack of turnovers would suppress points. That we’d see less transition opportunities and thus fewer easier buckets.
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That’s not wrong, but what that line of thought doesn’t account for is the increased quality of offensive possession that comes with working for the optimal look.
I like Houston’s tournament trends to continue (fewer turnovers committed and forced) and if that’s the case, the way in which Florida plays, penciling in both of these teams for 70+ points is reasonable – should one team get hot and flirt with 80 points, we are sitting pretty!
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