The Indiana Hoosiers certainly aren’t the basketball power they once were and the title of best team in Indiana belongs to the Purdue Boilermakers, instead. But the Hoosiers have the chance to beat their in-state Big Ten rivals Friday.
Can they pull off the upset? Find out our thoughts in this Indiana vs. Purdue prediction.
Indiana vs. Purdue Betting Preview
All Yale vs. Princeton odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Jan. 31, 2025.
- Spread
Purdue -12 - CSN Spread
Purdue -22 - Moneyline
Purdue -900, Indiana +600 - Over/Under
145.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Jan. 31, 8 ET - Location
Mackey Arena | West Lafayette, Ind. - How To Watch
FOX
Indiana is in the midst of a brutal stretch, as the Hoosiers enter their sixth-straight game as underdogs, though 12 points marks the largest spread in any of those games. The Hoosiers are 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread in those games.
Meanwhile the Boilermakers are on fire, covering in eight of their last nine conference games.
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Friday’s spread has ticked up from its initial number of 11.5 to its current standing at Purdue -12 (-12.5 at some books). There hasn’t been much movement in the total.
Indiana vs. Purdue CSN Power Rankings Line
Our power rankings put a much wider gap between the teams, as Purdue is ranked seventh while the Hoosiers are 69th.
The point difference between the teams, per our power rankings, far exceeds the 12-point spread. Given the gap between the teams and Purdue’s home-court advantage, our power rankings indicate the Boilermakers are a nearly 22-point favorite in this one.
Prediction for Indiana vs. Purdue
It feels weird to see a Purdue team that struggles to rebound the basketball, but the Boilermakers make up for it as one of the country’s most-efficient offenses. The Boilermakers pass the ball exceptionally well and shoot lights out.
Their tempo, however, prevents the raw numbers from looking overly-impressive. KenPom ranks Purdue 288th in adjusted pace and the Boilermakers are 298th in shots per game. But when they do shoot, the Boilermakers hit, as a top-10 3-point shooting team and top-45 team from inside the arc.
Their Kryptonite is allowing teams to beat them on the offensive glass. Unfortunately for Indiana, the Hoosiers aren’t built to take advantage in that regard.
I think this could get ugly for the Hoosiers, who do not shoot the ball well. To clarify, I mean ugly in terms of an ugly game not an ugly blowout. I think the Hoosiers can keep it close, but where are the points going to come from?
Center Oumar Ballo is the key, as he’s shooting 64.7% from the field. The issue is that the rest of the team is shooting just over 43.5% from the field, and just 32.4% from three. They don’t shoot — or make — many threes, making it difficult to keep up with teams that are efficient on offense.
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My favorite play here is the under. Indiana could try to get out in transition to minimize the impact of Purdue’s snail’s pace of play, but to do that well, you have to be able to finish. I just don’t see the Hoosiers shooting well enough to stay in this.
I also don’t see the Boilermakers playing fast enough to reach their implied total of 79 points. Expect a slow, plodding game in which the Hoosiers could go through some bad dry spells. If Purdue can slow Ballo, it can cover.
Prediction: Purdue 76, Indiana 62
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