On a tense Saturday night in the NCAA Tournament, Duke held every statistical edge a team could dream of. However, they still managed to lose to Houston.
What looked like a surefire path to the national title game for the Blue Devils ended up in disappointment, reminding many of the historic comeback the Cleveland Cavaliers pulled off in 2016. Houston defied a 335-0 odd to defeat Duke 70-67.
Houston Made a Historic Comeback to Defeat Duke
For most of the game, Duke dominated. They shot a higher field goal percentage, took more free throws, dished out more assists, committed fewer turnovers, and nabbed more steals. Since steals became an official stat in 1986, no team had ever lost an NCAA Tournament game with those advantages. The odds of Houston winning this were 0 in 335.
With 30 minutes in the books, Duke led 59-45, and freshman phenom Cooper Flagg seemed destined to carry his team to Monday’s title game against Florida. Then Houston locked in. A sharp 10-0 run late in the second half slashed Duke’s lead to four. The Cougars kept pushing, closing with a 15-3 surge that turned the game on its head.
Duke is the only team to have an NCAA Tournament game with:
a higher FG%
more FT attempts
more assists
fewer turnovers
more steals…than their opponent & yet still lose (since steals became official in 1986). Teams had been 335-0 when doing all that in the tourney. pic.twitter.com/afGEzTkfq9
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) April 6, 2025
With 1:14 left, Duke clung to a 67-61 edge and had the ball. A missed layup by Kon Knueppel was the beginning of the end. Emanuel Sharp drilled a 3-pointer, trimming the lead to 67-64 with 33 seconds remaining. Houston’s defense then forced a turnover on an inbounds play, and Joseph Tugler slammed home a dunk to make it 67-66.
Duke’s Tyrese Proctor stepped to the line for a 1-and-1 but missed the first shot. Flagg fouled J’Wan Roberts on the rebound, sending him to the free-throw line. Roberts calmly sank both shots, giving Houston a 68-67 lead with 19.6 seconds left. Flagg got a clean look at a jumper to reclaim the lead, but it rattled off the rim.
Mylik Wilson grabbed the rebound for Houston, and Duke fouled L.J. Cryer with 3.7 on the clock. Cryer nailed both free throws, sealing the 70-67 upset. Proctor’s last gasp heave missed everything as the buzzer sounded.
Duke’s offense collapsed when it mattered most. After Flagg’s jumper at the 10:31 mark made it 58-45, the Blue Devils managed just one more field goal—a Flagg 3-pointer with 3:03 left. Houston’s defense, ranked the best in the nation, smothered them down the stretch.
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This win was a statistical anomaly. Duke became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to lose despite leading in those five key categories. The win drew parallels to the Cleveland Cavaliers’ legendary 2016 NBA Finals comeback.
Down 3-1 to the Golden State Warriors, the Cavs clawed back to win the title, defying a deficit no team had overcome in Finals history.
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