The NBA Draft Lottery is set to take place on Monday, May 12 in Chicago, Illinois, and will be the jumping off point for a loaded 2025 NBA Draft class. While the No. 1 pick will almost assuredly be Duke phenom Cooper Flagg, there’s immense depth throughout — a stark difference from a year ago.
Interested in the odds each team has to secure the top pick? We’ve got it below. Want some history and background — including a slight prediction — on how the lottery has gone in recent history? Got that, too. We even provided a breakdown of five prospects to keep an eye on as the lottery plays out, headlined by Flagg.
Complete Odds for Every Team in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery
- Utah Jazz, 14.0%
- Washington Wizards, 14.0%
- Charlotte Hornets, 14.0%
- New Orleans Pelicans, 12.5%
- *Philadelphia 76ers, 10.5%
- Brooklyn Nets, 9.0%
- Toronto Raptors, 7.5%
- San Antonio Spurs, 6.0%
- Houston Rockets (via Phoenix Suns), 3.8%
- Portland Trail Blazers, 3.7%
- Dallas Mavericks, 1.8%
- Chicago Bulls, 1.7%
- ^Atlanta Hawks, 0.8%
- San Antonio (via Atlanta), 0.7%
*If outside the top 6, pick belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder
^If inside the top 4, pick belongs to the Sacramento Kings
With how much tanking has taken precedence in the NBA — no matter how much Commissioner Adam Silver will deny it — the draft lottery continues to be a must-see event following the second weekend of the second round playoff series’s. Of course, it takes place during the playoffs because none of the teams involved in the 16-team first round hold a lottery pick unless previously acquired in a trade.
That leaves the 14 other organizations in the 30-team association to agonize over their potential draft positioning. It makes sense, as the result of which can change the franchise’s outlook forever.
Just take a look at the San Antonio Spurs, who saw an era headlined by top picks Tim Duncan and David Robinson produce five championships. Now, after winning the 2023 draft lottery, they have another budding superstar in Victor Wembanyama.
Another aspect of the lottery is the way the percentages are determined, which was meant to combat the tanking sentiment.
Following the 2018 draft, Silver introduced new percentage allotments that featured the teams with the bottom three records each having an equal percentage of claiming the top pick at 14%. That was a change from the 25% chance given to the team with the league’s worst record.
As a result, the top pick has still gone to one of the bottom three teams in four of six years.
Last year was one of the two instances when it didn’t happen, as the Atlanta Hawks entered the night with a 3% of landing the top pick. As Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum started at No. 14 and down, the Hawks continued to not hear their name until he revealed them as holding the rights to the No. 1 selection.
While a major win for the franchise, it came in a clear down year in terms of top-level talent. They selected France prospect Zaccharie Risacher, who had a solid season in averaging 12.6 points but has far less potential than Wembanyama, the previous top pick.
The New Orleans Pelicans came away with the top pick in 2019 after entering with just a 6% chance. The Memphis Grizzlies also came in with the same odds and claimed the second pick, bumping each of the bottom three teams lower in the draft.
With that in mind, it is still likely that either the Jazz, Wizards or Hornets will end up with the No. 1 selection, as one of the teams with a 14% chance has done so in four of the six draft lotteries.
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Washington has held the top pick twice, selecting Kwame Brown in 2001 and John Wall in 2010. Brown’s Wizards career was filled with mishaps, as he can easily be considered a bust. Wall on the other hand was a multi-time All-Star and led the franchise to several deep playoff runs before his departure in 2020.
The Hornets have only drafted first once, when they took Larry Johnson in 1991. While he won the Rookie of the Year award and was a two-time All-Star in his career, Johnson didn’t quite live up to the bill of being the No. 1 pick.
The Jazz have never been atop the draft — they’ll be hoping for history come Monday night.
In terms of roster-building and player development, Utah would be the best destination of the three for Flagg to go to. He would fit seamlessly as a player on the wing who can handle to the ball when needed be.
The lottery is exactly what it sounds like — a lottery. It’s entirely luck. Yet there are moments that seem too good to be true, much like Wembanyama landing with the Spurs’ organization just years after Duncan retired.
If there’s a situation like that in this year’s lottery, it’d be Flagg joining the Jazz as they haven’t fielded any sort of title contender since the late 1990’s, when John Stockton and Karl Malone ran the show. For league optics, reviving Utah as a bona-fide NBA destination would be a win.
Top Prospects to Watch Ahead of the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery
Cooper Flagg, Forward, Duke
The long-time crown jewel of this draft class, as soon as the No. 1 pick is announced Flagg might as start looking for houses in that city.
The 6’9″, 205-pound forward led the Blue Devils in points (19.2), rebounds (7.5), assists (4.2), steals (1.4) and blocks (1.4) — in other words, every major stat category. His versatility and mature feel for the game coupled with his athleticism and top-tier defensive ability make him one of the top prospects of the past decade.
Dylan Harper, Guard, Rutgers
Harper is the odds-on favorite to be the second player selected in the draft after putting together a tremendous freshman season with the Scarlet Knights where he showcased every aspect of his game to NBA scouts.
Despite an underwhelming season for Rutgers, Harper ran the show as the lead guard and led the team with 19.4 points and 4.0 assists. His 6’6″, 215-pound frame negates his lack of foot speed with his positional size and exceptional craftiness around the hoop.
Whichever team lands Harper will presumably give him the keys to offense and hope he grows into a franchise point guard, much like the mold of what Cade Cunningham has done with the Detroit Pistons.
Ace Bailey, Forward, Rutgers
Standing 6’10” with guard skills, Bailey has as much potential as anyone in this class. Some have likened his skillset as similar to a young Kevin Durant — a sky-high comparison but not as crazy as one may think if he cleans up some deficiencies in his game.
Bailey scored 17.4 points and wasn’t afraid it mix it up down low, grabbing 7.2 rebounds despite weighing just 200 pounds.
He revealed himself as a tough shot-maker who can explode if he gets hot, as evidenced by his career-high 39-point performance during his freshman season. It may take the 18 year old a couple years of experience on the job before his efficiency begins to tick upwards, but he has All-Star and All-NBA potential from his wing position.
V.J. Edgecombe, Guard, Baylor
After flying a tad under the radar during the first half of the season at Baylor, the narrative on Edgecombe changed with increased confidence and volume during conference play. On the season, he averaged 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists.
What sticks out for the 6’5″, 180 pound Bahama native is his otherworldly athleticism, easily his best trait. That’s not to say he isn’t skilled, as he nailed 1.6 three pointers per game as a freshman and improved greatly as a playmaker late in the season.
Though he wasn’t a great defender for the Bears, he has the tools to become a lockdown defender with his tremendous length and quickness — the cherry on top for his potential as a two-guard in the league.
Kasparas Jakucionis, Guard, Illinois
The gap between Jakucionis and the four players ahead of him is pretty large, as many analysts are projecting the draft to really start at the fifth pick. The former Fighting Illini point guard could be in contention for this spot alongside Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears and Texas’s Tre Johnson.
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For a team looking for a guy who can take the reigns immediately and find open teammates while developing as a scorer, Jakucionis may be the guy. The Lithuanian native filled the stat sheet during his lone college season, averaging 15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists, showing his craftiness as a passer and in the lane as a finisher.
His height at 6’6″ allows him the ability to shoot over contesting defenders as well, as he showed flashes of being an above-average three-point shooter before his percentages dipped down the stretch. If the team that lands the fifth choice has a void of a playmaking lead guard, Jakucionis could easily hear his name with this pick.
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