How Many 15-Seeds Have Upset a 2-Seed in NCAA Tournament History?

Every March, college basketball fans brace themselves for the madness of the NCAA Tournament. While No. 1 seeds are typically dominant, one of the most exciting and rare occurrences is when a 15-seed topples a 2-seed.

It’s an upset that sends shockwaves through the tournament and etches teams into March Madness folklore. But just how many times has this happened? And what makes these upsets so special?

The History of 15-Over-2 NCAA Tournament Upsets

In the history of the NCAA Tournament, a No. 15 seed has defeated a No. 2 seed 11 times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. It was once considered nearly impossible, but in recent years, the occurrence has become more frequent.

Before 2012, only four 15-seeds had ever won, but since then, there have been seven such upsets, proving that parity in college basketball is alive and well.

The Full List of 15-Over-2 Upsets

1. Richmond over Syracuse (1991): The first-ever 15-over-2 upset, Richmond stunned Jim Boeheim’s squad with a 73-69 victory.
2. Santa Clara over Arizona (1993): Led by a young Steve Nash, Santa Clara shocked a loaded Arizona team 64-61.
3. Coppin State over South Carolina (1997): The Eagles, a MEAC school, pulled off a 78-65 win in convincing fashion.
4. Hampton over Iowa State (2001): A last-minute layup secured Hampton’s 58-57 upset.
5. Norfolk State over Missouri (2012): Kyle O’Quinn’s 26 points led Norfolk State to an 86-84 win.
6. Lehigh over Duke (2012): Future NBA star C.J. McCollum powered Lehigh past Duke 75-70.
7. Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown (2013): The birth of “Dunk City” as FGCU ran past Georgetown 78-68.
8. Middle Tennessee over Michigan State (2016): The Blue Raiders dominated from start to finish in a 90-81 upset.
9. Oral Roberts over Ohio State (2021): Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor led Oral Roberts to a 75-72 overtime win.
10. Saint Peter’s over Kentucky (2022): The Peacocks stunned Kentucky 85-79, igniting a historic Elite Eight run.
11. Princeton over Arizona (2023): The Tigers used a late surge to beat Arizona 59-55, continuing the Ivy League’s upset tradition.

Why Do 15-Seeds Upset 2-Seeds?

A 15-seed winning might be rare, but it’s not random. Several key factors contribute to these shocking upsets.

• Underrated Mid-Major Stars: Many 15-seeds come from mid-major conferences where they dominate lesser competition. Players like C.J. McCollum (Lehigh) and Max Abmas (Oral Roberts) were NBA-caliber talents overlooked by bigger programs.
• Overconfidence from 2-Seeds: Sometimes, top-ranked teams underestimate their opponents, assuming a first-round win is inevitable. This complacency can be deadly.
• Matchup Nightmares: 15-seeds often employ unorthodox playing styles. Whether it’s a fast-paced attack (Florida Gulf Coast) or a grind-it-out defensive battle (Princeton), their unpredictable tactics catch higher-seeded teams off guard.
• March Madness Magic: College basketball is unpredictable. With single-elimination stakes, all it takes is one hot-shooting night or a cold performance from a favorite to change everything.

Recent Trends: Are 15-Seed Upsets More Common Now?

In the last decade, the frequency of 15-over-2 upsets has increased dramatically. Since 2012, there have been seven such upsets, compared to just four in the previous 27 years. Why is this happening?

One reason is the rise of the transfer portal. Mid-major schools can now land top-tier talent who might not get playing time at powerhouse programs. This levels the playing field and gives smaller schools legitimate firepower.

Another factor is the increase in three-point shooting. Teams that get hot from deep can instantly neutralize talent gaps. Florida Gulf Coast and Oral Roberts both used this strategy to take down Georgetown and Ohio State, respectively.

Lastly, the pressure on 2-seeds is greater than ever. With social media and constant media coverage, players on high-ranked teams feel immense pressure. Meanwhile, 15-seeds play with nothing to lose, making them dangerous underdogs.

Will We See Another 15-Over-2 Upset in 2025?

With the way college basketball is evolving, another 15-seed upset feels inevitable. Teams from smaller conferences are better prepared than ever, and power programs can’t afford to take any matchup lightly. In 2025, potential 15-seed candidates will likely come from conferences like the Atlantic Sun, MAAC, or WAC, where top teams have a history of upsetting bigger opponents.

It’s also worth watching teams that rely heavily on one superstar player — whether it’s a dynamic point guard or a dominant big man. In the past, these types of teams have proven to be the most dangerous.

As we approach Selection Sunday, analysts and fans alike will be on high alert for any matchups that scream upset alert. Could this be the year a 15-seed makes an even deeper run? With the unpredictability of March Madness, anything is possible.

KEEP READING: Top 10 Unforgettable March Madness Moments of All Time

The 15-over-2 upset is one of the most exciting and chaotic moments in sports. It’s a reminder that any team can win on any given day, no matter how big the disparity in seeding. With 11 upsets already in the books and more expected in the future, one thing is certain — March Madness will never stop delivering surprises.

So, as you fill out your bracket this year, will you take the risk and predict a 15-seed to pull off the impossible?

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