Neither of these teams may be contending for a College Football Playoff spot, but don’t let the absence of national spotlight fool you—Saturday’s Sun Belt Championship Game between the Marshall Thundering Herd and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns promises to be one of the most thrilling matchups of the weekend.
Who will claim the conference crown? Our Marshall vs. Louisiana prediction dives into the latest odds, win probabilities, and breaks down the forecast for the Sun Belt Championship Game.
Marshall vs. Louisiana Betting Preview
All Marshall vs. Louisiana odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisiana -3 - Spread
Louisiana -5 - Moneyline
Louisiana -205, Marshall +170 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Cajun Field | Lafayette, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
56 degrees, mostly cloudy with showers, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN
Saturday sees the third-ever matchup between Marshall and Louisiana, who became Sun Belt foes in 2022. They met in the Thundering Herd’s debut season in the conference and the year before their transition from CUSA. Louisiana was victorious in both encounters, and Michael Desormeaux’s team is favored to extend their winning streak when the teams meet this weekend.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
A slew of money on the Ragin’ Cajuns during game week has seen the odds swing even more toward the home team. Starting the week as a four-point favorite, the line has moved to -6 by Thursday. That hasn’t always been to Louisiana’s advantage, losing as a favorite already this year and only being 5-4 ATS.
Marshall is no stranger to overcoming the odds in 2024. In their final two games, they booked their spot in the 2024 Sun Belt Championship Game by winning as an underdog against the James Madison Dukes and Old Dominion Monarchs. The Thundering Herd is also 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Marshall’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Marshall has a 42.6% chance of beating Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Although the Thundering Herd overcame the expectation of our metric to beat James Madison, it has been largely in lockstep with the team during the 2024 college football regular season.
- at Louisiana: 42.6%
Louisiana’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Louisiana has a 57.4% chance of beating Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Other than the defeat to the South Alabama Jaguars, our metric has accurately projected the Ragin’ Cajuns’ season, including the win over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, where oddsmakers had them as an underdog.
- vs. Marshall: 57.4%
Prediction for Marshall vs. Louisiana
Louisiana and Marshall locked in their spots for the Sun Belt Championship Game on Saturday night, but thanks to a web of tiebreakers, they had to wait until Sunday to learn the location of the title showdown. Now, the stage is set at Cajun Field, where the two will battle for the right to be crowned conference champions.
The 10-2 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns are looking to claim their first Sun Belt title since 2021 in what will be their fifth appearance in the championship game. Can they finally shed the “perennial bridesmaid” label? Or will the 9-3 Marshall Thundering Herd spoil the party in their inaugural Sun Belt Championship Game appearance? Who has the upper hand? Where will the game be decided, and which team will end their season as conference champions?
Charles Huff has worked wonders with the Thundering Herd, despite an undercurrent of unwarranted skepticism around him. Picked to finish fifth in the Sun Belt East preseason poll, Huff’s squad defied expectations with a punishing ground game and a defense anchored by one of the nation’s most ferocious pass rushers. Their efforts earned them the divisional crown.
Marshall is far from a long shot on Saturday. Defensive lineman Mike Green leads the nation in tackles for loss (21) and tops the Sun Belt in sacks (16), wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. In the secondary, Wake Forest transfer J.J. Roberts has been a revelation, breaking up a Sun Belt-best 14 passes.
On offense, the Herd have explosive playmakers like running back A.J. Turner, one of the most dynamic rushers in the country, and dual-threat quarterback Braylon Braxton. Together, they power the 19th-ranked rushing attack nationally. Marshall’s offense is also efficient, scoring 31.9 points per game—good for fourth in the conference—heading into this pivotal matchup.
While Marshall has the tools to pull off a victory, Louisiana enters as the favorite, and for good reason. Like Marshall, the Ragin’ Cajuns exceeded preseason expectations, surging to the top of the Sun Belt West in their third season under head coach Michael Desormeaux.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have leaned on a defense that echoes the suffocating units from the Billy Napier era. Ranked in the top 50 nationally, Louisiana allows just 22.8 points per game. Tyrone Lewis Jr., Kody Jackson, and Tyree Skipper spearhead a ball-hawking secondary that ranks second in the Sun Belt in interceptions.
Louisiana has also been effective at limiting rushing touchdowns and explosive runs—factors that could prove decisive against Marshall’s potent ground game. Offensively, the Ragin’ Cajuns boast a balanced attack.
Running backs Elijah Davis, Zylan Perry, and Dre’lyn Washington lead the ground game, while quarterbacks Ben Wooldridge & Chandler Fields have shown they can connect with tight end Terrance Carter and wide receiver Lance Legendre to keep defenses honest.
With their offensive balance, defensive consistency, and the advantage of playing at home, Louisiana has the edge to bring home the Sun Belt title.
Prediction: Louisiana 30, Marshall 27
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.