The new-look SEC wasted no time making an impression, with some downright brutal schedules emerging for 2024.
The toughest draw? That dubious honor goes to the Florida Gators, who are set to face one of the most grueling closing stretches in college football history.
Even if a few opponents down the stretch haven’t hit their stride, the LSU Tigers still pose a formidable threat. Can the Gators steady the ship against an LSU squad also looking to bounce back from a blowout loss? Check out our LSU vs. Florida prediction for a closer look.
LSU vs. Florida Betting Preview
All LSU vs. Florida odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -15 - Spread
LSU -3.5 - Moneyline
LSU -175, Florida +145 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium | Gainesville, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, partly cloudy, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Both Florida and LSU are coming off of blowout losses in their respective ABC national broadcast games last week, each losing by more than four touchdowns to current College Football Playoff teams.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a spread of 3.5 points and a total of 55.5, Vegas expects a decent game. The line also seems to imply DJ Lagway could be back for the Gators because the offense is lost without him. The spread and total imply a final score close to 29-26 in favor of the Tigers.
LSU’s Winning Probability
While the Tigers struggled on Saturday, CFN’s Football Playoff Meter doesn’t expect them to struggle against the Gators. LSU has an 87.4% chance to win in Gainesville, per the metric, one of three relatively easy games remaining for the Tigers.
- at Florida: 87.4%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 75.5%
- vs. Oklahoma: 82.6%
Florida’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Florida has a 12.6% chance of beating LSU at home, which translates to a spread of about 15 points. Needing two wins for bowl eligibility, the Gators will need to pull off an upset before beating rival Florida State to make it to the postseason.
- vs. LSU: 12.6%
- vs. Ole Miss: 7.1%
- at Florida State: 57.4%
Prediction for LSU vs. Florida
Every preview for this game zeroes in on Lagway’s health — and for good reason. Without him, the Gators’ offense has been a shadow of its former self.
That’s not to say Florida hasn’t faced tougher defenses than the one they’ll see on Saturday. But without Lagway’s big arm and mobility, both the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs simply stacked the box against backup Aidan Warner, daring him to beat them through the air.
It looks like Lagway will suit up, and his ability to stretch the field could take advantage of an LSU defense that’s been vulnerable to explosive plays all season.
While the Tigers have shown improvement in their havoc rate and overall consistency compared to last year, they still allow more big plays than any other team in the SEC.
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This game likely hinges on LSU’s ability to limit Florida’s chances for chunk plays. Without Lagway — and maybe even with him — the Gators haven’t demonstrated they can sustain drives.
The betting line, sitting at just 5.5 points, hints that Lagway might be in the lineup. That said, hamstring injuries are tricky, and even if he plays, it’s hard to believe he’ll be operating at full capacity.
With a healthy Lagway, this could be a compelling matchup. Without his mobility in the pocket, though, LSU’s defense could deliver one of its strongest outings of the year.
On the other side of the ball, LSU’s offense found itself taking risks to rally against Alabama. Against Florida, they should be able to establish more balance and put together long, sustained drives. If Garrett Nussmeier gets enough protection, he should have no trouble dissecting Florida’s shaky secondary.
In the end, LSU feels poised to win comfortably. Even if Lagway suits up, Florida’s offense may not be able to keep pace. Take LSU and the under — the Gators likely won’t contribute enough to threaten the total.
Prediction: LSU 29, Florida 17
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